UFC 316 Prelims Card Odds, Picks & Predictions (2025)
Two title fights are lined up for Saturday in the UFC. Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O'Malley will fight again after Dvalishvili dominated their first matchup in 2024. He will put the Bantamweight belt on the line in the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey.
Julianna Pena was unable to defend her belt in the rematch with Amanda Nunes, but has another chance after winning the strap again by beating Raquel Pennington in October of 2024. She will face Kayla Harrison, who has quickly reached a title fight after two fights in the UFC. The early prelims begin at 6:00 p.m. ET, while the pay-per-view (PPV) starts at 10:00 p.m. ET.
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UFC 316 Preliminary Card Odds, Picks & Predictions (2025)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Khaos Williams (-192) vs. Andreas Gustafsson (+160)
Khaos Williams and Andreas Gustafsson will kick off the preliminary card this weekend in a short-notice matchup. Williams is a solid test for Gustafsson in his first fight in the UFC. He earned a contract on Dana White's Contender Series with a knockout victory in 2024. Williams is 6-3 in the UFC and is coming off a submission loss to Gabriel Bonfim. He has struggled against better competition in the UFC, and Gustaffson is a solid prospect.
Gustafsson will have a four-inch reach disadvantage in this matchup, but I do not think it will matter much. He likes to tie his opponents up in the clinch and use dirty boxing to wear down his opponent. He can also grapple well enough to find a takedown against Williams.
Williams has not landed a takedown in the UFC and has defended 60% of takedowns. Williams likes to throw power punches and blitzes with big shots. Gustafsson is capable of landing a counter punch, especially as a short-notice replacement. Williams has had little time to prepare for his opponent, and Gustafsson is a bad matchup for him.
Bet: Andreas Gustafsson (+160)
Serghei Spivac (-142) vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+120)
Waldo Cortes-Acosta has never faced a grappler on the level of Serghei Spivac. Spivac should use his grappling to control Cortes-Acosta on the mat. Cortes-Acosta is a former boxer and has not trained long enough to be on the level of Spivac on the mat.
Cortes-Acosta should be the better striker, but Spivac is capable of competing with him. Spivac lost via knockout to Jailton Almeida in his last fight, but he did take him down in that fight. He controlled Almeida for two minutes on the mat, and Cortes-Acosta is not even close to the same level as Almeida.
Cortes-Acosta is not known for his power despite being a heavyweight striker. He only has two knockouts in the UFC and has gone the distance five times in seven fights. Spivac is durable enough to withstand any strikes from Cortes-Acosta and implement his wrestling to control him on the mat.
The odds suggest a submission finish is the most likely outcome, but a ground-and-pound knockout is not out of the question. Spivac has too big of a wrestling advantage in this matchup and should be able to control Cortes-Acosta on the mat for the majority of the fight.
Bet: Serghei Spivac (-142)