UFC 317 Picks: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France (2025)
The T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas is hosting another pay-per-view UFC event. UFC 317 features two title fights that are sure not to disappoint. The star power is heavy for this card, and there are great matchups from top to bottom. Ilia Topuria vacated his featherweight belt to move up to lightweight and will face challenger Charles Oliveira. Alexandre Pantoja will put his belt on the line in the co-main event against Kai Kara-France.
The atmosphere is always electric in Las Vegas, and the crowd will be packed early in the night for the plethora of entertaining matchups. The early prelims begin at 6:30 p.m. ET on UFC Fight Pass, and the prelims will be on ESPN at 8:00 p.m. The main card gets underway at 10:00 p.m. on ESPN+.
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UFC 317 Picks: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Alexandre Pantoja (-245)
Alexandre Pantoja has won seven consecutive fights, including defending his title three times in a row after winning it from Brandon Moreno in 2023. Pantoja beat Kai Asakura via second-round submission at UFC 310 and beat Steve Erceg and Brandon Royval by unanimous decision in his first two title defenses. Pantoja has a professional record of 29-5 and is 13-3 in the UFC.
Pantoja lands 4.41 significant strikes and absorbs 3.92 significant strikes per minute. He lands with 50% accuracy and also defends 50% of significant strikes from his opponents. Pantoja averages 2.74 takedowns landed per 15 minutes with 47% accuracy. He has defended 68% of takedowns in the UFC. He also averages 0.9 submissions attempted per 15 minutes.
Kai Kara-France (+200)
Kai Kara-France beat Steve Erceg by first-round knockout in his last fight at UFC 305. He lost two consecutive fights before that to Amir Albazi by split decision and Brandon Moreno via knockout in a title fight. Kara-France is 25-11 with one no contest as a professional and is 8-4 in the UFC.
Kara-France lands 4.56 significant strikes and absorbs 3.22 significant strikes per minute. Kara-France lands with 39% accuracy and defends 65% of his opponent's significant strikes. He averages 0.61 takedowns landed per 15 minutes with 33% accuracy and defends 88% of takedowns in the UFC.
Prediction
Alexandre Pantoja is dominating the flyweight division. He is 8-0 against the current top 15 in the flyweight division, and is still in his prime at 35. Kai Kara-France is entering this fight as the fourth-ranked flyweight fighter, but will have his hands full with Pantoja. These two met on The Ultimate Fighter in 2016; Pantoja won via unanimous decision in a two-round fight. Both fighters have grown significantly since then, so there is not much to glean from that bout.
Kara-France is heavy-handed, especially in the Flyweight Division. He has three knockout victories in the UFC and eight knockdowns in 12 fights in the UFC. He may have a slight striking advantage, but it is not much at all. Kara-France has slick boxing and is defensive on the feet. Pantoja must be cautious in the early rounds of this fight and avoid Kara-France's powerful punches.
Pantoja has a clear grappling advantage in this matchup. He is a much better wrestler and can get Kara-France to the mat despite his excellent takedown defense. Kara-France has been submitted once in the UFC, against Brandon Royval, in 2020. Pantoja has five submission victories in the UFC. Kara-France will not escape this fight if Pantoja takes his back. He will have to get saved by the bell because Pantoja will lock up a rear naked choke and end the fight.
Bet: Alexandre Pantoja to Win by Submission (+225)