UFC 319 Main Card Odds, Picks & Predictions (2025)
UFC 319 is set for Saturday night in Chicago, Illinois, and all roads lead to a middleweight title fight between Dricus Du Plessis (champion) and Khamzat Chimaev (No. 3). Check out my full breakdown and betting analysis for the main event here. In this article, I'm diving into three other main card bouts from a sports betting perspective. Here are my top UFC 319 main card bets.
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UFC 319 Main Card Odds, Picks & Predictions (2025)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Lerone Murphy (+145) vs. Aaron Pico (-175)
Let's pick it up in the co-main event, which features a featherweight showdown between Lerone Murphy (No. 6) and Aaron Pico. Murphy, who's undefeated (16-0-1), finds himself as a sizable underdog against the debuting Pico. The former Bellator brawler has posted a professional record of 13-4-0.
In my opinion, this line is a bit lofty in favor of Pico. There's value in backing Murphy, and I'm going to ride with him at +145 on the Moneyline. Now, just because the line's off doesn't mean we should automatically bet it. There needs to be a route to victory for the underdog, and in this case, I believe there is.
Pico's a wrestler. He's going to try and take this fight to the canvas. He may find success early, but I don't think he'll manage to keep the lengthy Englishman on the ground for too long and dominate the fight. Murphy owns a respectable 52% takedown defense rate. If he can avoid getting ragdolled, he'll have the edge on the feet. He has a two-inch reach advantage (73 inches vs. 71 inches) and boasts an excellent 61% strike defense rate. Murphy's a smart fighter and doesn't put himself in compromising positions. He's battle-tested, and I like him to stay undefeated against the UFC newcomer.
Bet: Lerone Murphy Moneyline (+145)
Jared Cannonier (+164) vs. Michael Page (-198)
After a stint toward the top of the middleweight division, Jared Cannonier (No. 9), with a record of 18-8-0, slid into a gatekeeping role in the weight class. His next task is to stop unranked Michael Page (23-3-0) from entering the 185-pound rankings. However, Cannonier finds himself as a +164 Moneyline underdog on Saturday night. Page, who's coming off a nice win (U-DEC) over Shara Magomedov in February, is nearly a 2-1 favorite.
I'll take Michael "Venom" Page to win this fight by points at even money. This one could turn into a bit of a snooze fest, but I do think it'll be Page who emerges via the judges' scorecards. There's a pretty good chance this fight stays on the feet, considering both brawlers are averaging fewer than 0.50 takedowns per 15 minutes. This should give Page the edge, since he's landing his significant strikes at a 62% clip. Cannonnier has only been knocked out three times in 26 professional fights, which signals to me that he has a good enough chin to last the full 15 minutes. Give me Page to win in a somewhat boring fight.
Bet: Michael Page to Win by Decision (+100)
Tim Elliott (+260) vs. Kai Asakura (-325)
The main card opens up with a banger in the flyweight division between Tim Elliott (No. 11) and his 21-13-1 record and Kai Asakura (No. 15) and his 21-5-0 record. Asakura will make the walk for the first time since December 2024, when he was submitted (Rear Naked Choke) in the flyweight championship by Alexandre Pantoja. He's a massive -325 favorite on Saturday, while Elliott comes back at +260 to secure his second consecutive victory.
I like Asakura to bounce back and secure the victory on Saturday night. I doubt the Japanese-born brawler wants to go to the floor with Elliott, which means this win will likely come by decision or knockout. Elliott has only suffered one knockout loss across 34 professional fights, so I think we'll ultimately see this one go the distance. He has dropped toward the bottom of the division, where he's managed to stay in the rankings by taking down mid-tier fighters. However, against an opponent of Asakura's caliber, I don't think he'll fare too well. I like Asakura to win by points.
Bet: Kai Asakura to Win by Decision (+150)