UFC 319 Odds & Picks: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev (2025)
The UFC hits the road this weekend for another numbered event, and all roads at UFC 319 lead to a massive championship showdown in the Middleweight division between (C) Dricus Du Plessis and (#3) Khamzat Chimaev. Both men are undefeated in the promotion and riding winning streaks of at least 12 fights. Below, I'll explore each fighter's path to UFC 319, discuss their key metrics, and provide my best bet for the 25-minute fight.
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UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Dricus Du Plessis (23-2-0)
Last Five Fights: W-W-W-W-W
South Africa's Dricus Du Plessis has been untouchable in the UFC, going 9-0-0 and barreling through some of the legends atop the 185-pound weight class. He's 3-0 in title fights, which include a win over Israel Adesanya (SUB - Rear Naked Choke) that's bookended by victories against Sean Strickland (S-DEC, U-DEC). February's unanimous-decision win over Strickland was a high-volume affair, where the champion amassed 147 significant strikes and landed a takedown.
Du Plessis is a solid grappler, and this is an area where he'll need to be sharp against a fighter of Chimaev's caliber. "Stillknocks" is landing 2.55 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 50% success rate, while fending off 50% of opposing attempts. Up top, he's dishing out an insane 6.12 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.90 strikes per minute. Du Plessis is a kickboxer by trade, and he's racked up nine professional MMA knockouts and 11 submission victories.
Betting Profile: Khamzat Chimaev (14-0-0)
Last Five Fights: W-W-W-W-W
Meanwhile, Khamzat Chimaev stormed onto the UFC scene back in 2020, rattling off three wins over a two-month span. He then started making his way up the rankings, knocking off some of the elite talent in the UFC, including Gilbert Burns (U-DEC), Kamaru Usman (M-DEC), and Robert Whittaker (SUB - Rear Naked Choke). The recent victory against Whittaker took just 3:34 worth of fight time, and Chimaev only absorbed two strikes before locking in a submission.
Chimaev is a superstar wrestler, averaging 4.31 takedowns per 15 minutes. He's landing those attempts at a 46% success rate. The Chechen-born brawler has yet to be taken down in the UFC (100% TD defense). He's landing 5.36 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing only 3.25 strikes per minute. Chimaev is 14-0-0 professionally with six knockouts, six submissions, and two decision wins.
Du Plessis vs. Chimaev Prediction
This should be a banger of a main event at 185 pounds, as Dricus Du Plessis looks to make his third successful defense of the title. The sportsbooks don't anticipate the champion emerging victorious, as he's priced at +205 to retain the belt. Khamzat Chimaev comes back at a whopping -250 to win his first championship bout.
In my opinion, this fight has gone too far out in favor of Chimaev, and I believe it's time to buy back on the champ. I'm riding with Stillknocks to secure the victory on Saturday night.
I have a few concerns with Chimaev. First and foremost, it's his cardio. He typically hunts early finishes, which could lead to him burning out his gas tank. Specifically, the win over Kamaru Usman (M-DEC) stands out, as Usman snuck back into the fight as it progressed, before ultimately losing in a majority-decision. This was also an Usman that was on the decline, so it's not like Chimaev dominated the man that haunted the 170-pound division for so long.
Now Chimaev will be tasked with trying to knock off du Plessis, who is riding a 12-fight winning streak of his own. He's a bit unconventional with his fighting approach, but nonetheless, the South African has knockout power, is sharp with his ground game, and has great stamina.
Ultimately, I agree that Chimaev should be favored, and I also won't be shocked if he secures the belt on Saturday. However, it's time to show the champion some respect. If du Plessis drags this fight into the championship rounds and finds any success with his takedown defense, he's going to have a great chance to win. I can't pass up on a +205 payout with the champ.
Pick: Dricus Du Plessis Moneyline (+205)