UFC 321 Odds & Picks: Aspinall vs. Gane (2025)
The UFC has three numbered events to round out the calendar year, and that includes this weekend's UFC 321 card from the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, UAE. There are a couple of championship belts on the line, but this article will focus on the main event in the Heavyweight division between (C) Tom Aspinall and (#1) Ciryl Gane. Let's dive into each fighter's recent form and key statistics, check out the odds, and wrap it up with my best bets for this 265-pound championship tilt.
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UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Tom Aspinall (15-3-0)
England's Tom Aspinall has been nearly untouchable throughout his professional career. He picked up a DQ loss in 2016 and suffered that terrible knee injury against Curtis Blaydes in 2022, but other than that, it has almost all been positive for the now-32-year-old heavyweight. Not counting the Blaydes anomaly, Aspinall has rattled off 11 consecutive finishing victories. His last five wins are all first-round finishes. Aspinall initially claimed the belt in an interim fashion in 2023 by knocking out Sergei Pavlovich (punches), and he successfully defended the title against the aforementioned Blaydes (KO - punches) at UFC 304 in July 2024.
Due to the brief nature of Aspinall's fights, his statistics are a bit inflated. He's averaging 8.07 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing only 2.89 strikes per minute. Aspinall does have three professional submissions, and he's landing 3.27 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 100% success rate. His takedown defense rate is 100% as well. The Englishman has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.
Betting Profile: Cyril Gane (13-2-0)
Meanwhile, France's Ciryl Gane is an impressive 13-2-0 throughout his professional career, but the two blemishes are quite noteworthy. He has already fought for the Heavyweight title twice, and dropped both of those bouts to Francis Ngannou (U-DEC) and Jon Jones (SUB - Guillotine), more recently. Since the Jones loss, Gane has bounced back with a couple of victories over Serghei Spivac (KO/TKO - Punches) and Alexander Volkov (S-DEC).
Gane has an athletic build, and he's a beast standing at 6' 5". He hasn't been too active in the grappling department during his 12-fight UFC stint, averaging 0.70 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 25% success rate. He's fending off 43% of opposing takedown attempts. Up stairs, Gane is dishing out 5.26 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing only 2.23 strikes per minute. With his athleticism and 81-inch reach, the Frenchman is typically able to keep his distance, which is why we see that he has a solid 61% strike defense rate.
Aspinall vs. Gane Prediction
The sports betting market isn't expecting much of a contest in Saturday's main event, as Tom Aspinall is a sizable -355 moneyline favorite to retain his strap. Ciryl Gane comes back at +280 to get the monkey off his back and finally secure UFC gold after two previous failed attempts.
It's an interesting fight from a sports betting angle, but I do think the chalk option to play the champ to win by KO/TKO/DQ at -125 is the best way to go. Sure, Gane offers a different type of opponent with his speed and nimbleness, but that's the exact thing that we said about him when he stepped up to take on Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones. We all know how those fights finished.
Aspinall is going to have five rounds to try and find the finish. He has been untouchable on the feet and relatively untested on the ground, but the Englishman's edge may come in the ground game. He has three submission wins, so he's not unfamiliar with taking the fight to the mat. The biggest issue with Gane remains his takedown defense, which both Ngannou and Jones exploited in their wins against the Frenchman. Gane is fending off only 43% of opposing takedown attempts.
Ultimately, with 25 minutes to work with, I expect Aspinall to eventually get the challenger to the canvas and finish him with a ground-and-pound victory. That's essentially the worst case scenario for us as knockout bettors. The best case is that Aspinall simply outclasses Gane on the feet and just buries him with another early knockout. That's always a realistic chance with the heavy-handed Aspinall. Let's take the champ to win by KO.
Pick: Tom Aspinall To Win By KO/TKO/DQ (-125)