UFC 323 Prelims Card Odds, Picks & Predictions (2025)
The last pay-per-view of the year, and supposedly the last one ever, is this weekend in Las Vegas. The UFC is moving to Paramount+ in 2026 after airing on ESPN from 2019 to 2025, and is including all numbered UFC events with a subscription to Paramount+.
Merab Dvalishvili is putting his bantamweight belt on the line against Petr Yan, as he attempts to defend it for the fourth consecutive time. That bout is the main event, while another title fight is the co-main event. The flyweight champion, Alexandre Pantoja, is fighting Joshua Van, as he attempts to defend his title for a fifth time. The fights get underway at 6 p.m. Eastern, and the main card starts at 10 p.m. Eastern on pay-per-view.
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UFC 323 Prelims Card Picks & Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Marvin Vettori (-118) vs. Brunno Ferreira (-102)
Marvin Vettori challenged Israel Adesanya for the middleweight title in 2021, but lost via unanimous decision. He is 2-4 since then and has lost three in a row, including two already in 2025. He is fighting Brunno Ferreira, who is 5-2 in the UFC and has already won twice in 2025. Ferreira submitted both opponents, Armen Petrosyan and Jackson McVey, via armbar. Marvin Vettori has passed his prime and no longer looks like the fighter who challenged Adesanya for the middleweight belt.
These guys are going in opposite directions, and this is a solid matchup for Ferreira. Vettori is not known as a power puncher and usually goes the distance. His last finish was a submission over Karl Roberson in 2020. Ferreira has never gone the distance in the UFC and has a lot of power. He also has a grappling base, which should keep this fight standing. The only problem for Ferreira is his cardio, especially if Vettori can navigate the power punches. He has a chance to find a knockout against Vettori, who has never been knocked out.
Pick: Brunno Ferreira Moneyline (-102)
Grant Dawson (–218) vs. Manuel Torres (+180)
The featured prelim of the night is a bout between two lightweights seeking to break into the top 15. Grant Dawson is on a three-fight winning streak, while Manuel Torres is 4-1 in the UFC. This fight is a clash of styles, as Dawson is a wrestler. He averages 2.87 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, while Torres defends 88% of takedowns.
Dawson does not have a good chin. He has only one loss in the UFC, and it was against King Green via first-round knockout. That was the only time he was knocked down in the UFC, but his chin is not as good as it seems. Torres has three knockouts in the UFC and one submission. His striking is much better than Dawson's, so Torres wants to keep this fight standing. His grappling is also underrated, and he can get back to his feet if Dawson gets him to the mat. Torres has too much power and is a nightmare matchup for Dawson.
Pick: Manuel Torres Moneyline (+180)