UFC 325 Odds & Picks: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 (2026)
And just like that, we're back with another numbered UFC event. The promotion packs its bags and heads down under this weekend, where Featherweight Champion Alexander Volkanovski will defend his strap in a rematch versus Diego Lopes (No. 2). Below, I'll dive into each fighter's path to the UFC 325 main event and touch on their key metrics, before wrapping up with the odds and my favorite UFC 325 picks. Here's our BettingPros preview for UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2.
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UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Alexander Volkanovski (27-4-0)
Last Five Fights: W-L-L-W-L
It wasn't too long ago that it looked like Alexander Volkanovski's legendary career was coming to a close. He was swept 2-0 in title fights by Islam Makhachev, while suffering a tough knockout loss to Ilia Topuria in February 2024. He took 14 months off before getting a chance at featherweight gold once again. Volkanovski looked sharp in last April's championship bout versus Diego Lopes, out-striking him 158-63 and winning a unanimous decision. He showed the world that he still has what it takes to compete at the highest level in the sport.
Statistically, the Aussie brawler is a high-volume striker, logging 6.18 significant strikes per minute. He's absorbing 3.36 strikes per minute, while boasting a solid 58% strike defense rate. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt holder is landing 1.67 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 34% success rate. He's fending off 70% of opposing takedown attempts. This will be Volkanovski's 32nd professional tilt, and he's 27-4 with 13 knockouts, 11 decision victories and a trio of submissions.
Betting Profile: Diego Lopes (27-7-0)
Last Five Fights: W-L-W-W-W
Diego Lopes rose through the UFC Featherweight rankings quickly, going 5-0 from August 2023 to September 2024. This stretch included notable victories over Dan Ige (U-DEC) and Brian Ortega (U-DEC), which earned him a title fight in April 2025 against Alexander Volkanovski. Lopes dropped the title fight in a 25-minute battle, but he did win one or two rounds, depending on which of the judges' scorecards you looked at (49-46, 49-46, 48-47). One area where Lopes excelled was his takedown defense, where he stuffed 10 of Volkanovski's 11 takedown attempts. Following the championship letdown, Lopes won an absolute war against Jean Silva, recording a second-round knockout to set up this title rematch.
Lopes is a well-rounded fighter with 27 professional wins. He has 11 knockouts and 12 submission victories. The Brazilian is landing 4.10 significant strikes per minute at a 48% success rate, while absorbing an elevated 4.72 strikes. His chin was tested against Silva, but it held up well enough to secure the win. Lopes is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt holder with a 55% takedown success rate and a 67% takedown defense mark. He's throwing an average of 1.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes.
Volkanovski vs. Lopes Prediction
The BettingPros odds comparison tool shows that Alexander Volkanovski opened as a -166 Moneyline favorite. We've seen some action come in on the challenger, as he is now down to a -148 favorite. Lopes comes back at +124 to get his redemption and secure the strap.
Let me start by saying that there's no chance I'm betting against Volkanovski on his home soil. The champ had a few setbacks en route to getting his belt back, but those losses came at the hands of elite fighters in their prime. Diego Lopes isn't that guy right now.
With the way these fighters operate, I ultimately think it's going to end up being another stand-up kickboxing match. Lopes will have to take some chances and put himself in vulnerable positions, since he'll likely be outclassed if it is another vertical fight. However, the way Lopes' chin has held up throughout this run has me shying away from a +350 shot on a Volkanovski knockout win.
The chalk method of victory is the best way to bet this fight. I'm backing Volkanovski to defend the belt, ultimately winning by points. He's undoubtedly the more technical fighter, and he has proven he's still quick enough to compete at an elite level. Volkanovski is more battle-tested, having fought absolute legends throughout his career. I expect Alexander "The Great" to piece up the challenger and secure another decision win. Seven of his last 11 fights have gone the distance, and Volkanovski has logged 11 decisions throughout his 27-win career.
Bet: Alexander Volkanovski to Win by Decision (+150)