UFC 330 Odds & Picks: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry (2026)
It has been seven years since the UFC was in Philadelphia, but they are returning with two exciting title fights. Islam Makhachev is tied with Anderson Silva with 16 consecutive wins and is putting his welterweight belt on the line against Ian Machado Garry. Mackenzie Dern is also putting her women's strawweight strap on the line against Gillian Robertson. The prelims begin at 5:30 p.m. ET, and the main card starts at 9:00 p.m. ET. Below are my top UFC 330 main card picks.
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UFC 330 Picks & Predictions: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry(2026)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Islam Makhachev Betting Preview (-360)
Islam Makhachev has won 16 consecutive fights in the UFC and is 28-1 as a professional. He moved up to welterweight in his last fight and beat Jack Della Maddalena to win the belt. He won the lightweight strap from Charles Oliveira in 2022 and defended it four times.
Makhachev lands 2.45 significant strikes and absorbs 1.45 significant strikes per minute. He lands with 58% accuracy and defends 61% of his opponents’ significant strikes. Makhachev averages 3.10 takedowns landed per 15 minutes at 56% accuracy. He defends 91% of takedowns, but that should not matter much in this matchup.
Ian Machado Garry Betting Preview (+285)
Ian "The Future" Machado Garry is 10-1 in the UFC and 17-1 as a professional. His lone loss was in December 2024 against Shavkat Rakhmonov. He has beaten Carlos Prates and Belal Muhammad since then in 2025.
Machado Garry lands 4.78 significant strikes and absorbs 2.86 significant strikes per minute. He lands with 54% accuracy and defends 52% of opponents’ significant strikes. He averages 0.92 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and defends 80% of takedowns.
Makhachev vs. Machado Garry Prediction
Islam Makhachev has one significant advantage: Wrestling. The control he has on the mat is on another level that is incomparable to anyone in the UFC. Machado Garry stands five inches taller than Makhachev and has a four-inch reach advantage. The reach advantage doesn’t matter when Machado Garry is on his back, and his long legs may make it easy for Makhachev to secure a single-leg takedown.
Machado Garry has better striking, but make no mistake, Makhachev is an excellent striker. Machado Garry has elite kickboxing and phenomenal kicks, but kicking is a mistake against Makhachev. You lose all balance when kicking, and it takes one well-timed takedown for Makhachev to control the rest of the round from top position.
Machado Garry's path to victory is to land strikes from range and stay moving. He does not have much power for the division, but he is extremely accurate and precise. He has to land strikes while circling away from Makhachev. That is an exhausting way to fight, and he could get tired quickly the second Makhachev gets him to the mat. Makhachev's cardio is unquestioned, but Machado Garry has slowed down before, especially against Prates.
I expect Makhachev to get this fight to the mat relatively quickly and wear down Machado Garry for a few rounds. His striking should start working with the looming threat of takedowns as Machado Garry begins to think about defending against them. Makhachev is a master on the mat and should find a choke at some point in this matchup.
Bet: Islam Makhachev to Win by Submission (+200)