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UFC on ESPN 43 Marlon Vera vs. Cory Sandhagen: Picks & Predictions

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The main event of UFC San Antonio features top-five bantamweights Marlon Vera and Cory Sandhagen in a contest that might lead to a title fight for the victor in the not-so-distant future. UFC on ESPN 43 will be broadcast live on ESPN/ESPN+ from the AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas, in the United States.

These competitors have a lot to live up to after the thrilling UFC 286 main event between Leon Edwards and Kamaru Usman. With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at both of these bantamweight killers and where the value is in one of my top UFC predictions of the month.

UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. Cory Sandhagen

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Betting Profile: Marlon Vera (20-7-1)

Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-L)

Vera, who is only 30 years old, has competed in the UFC extensively and has a 14-6 record since joining in 2014. Early in his career, Vera struggled a bit, but since losing to Yadong Song in May 2020, he has been on a tear, going 5-1 while winning matches against Sean O’Malley, Rob Font, and Dominik Cruz (a former champion).

I’m also relying on the analytics here since they’ve fought a total of 31 times in the UFC. Vera leads in knockdown average, submission average (3x), takedown accuracy (2x), and takedown defense but is slightly behind in major striking volume.

Betting Profile: Cory Sandhagen (15-4-0)

Last Five Fights (W-L-L-W-W)

Beginning with Sandhagen, who joined the UFC in 2018 and has amassed an 8-3 record since then, while being only 30 years old, he’s a veteran of both this sport and division.

While he has occasionally displayed glimpses of brilliance during his career, he has always fallen just short, losing to three former champions from the division: Aljamain Sterling, TJ Dillashaw, and Petr Yan. Sandhagen is a fairly competent all-around fighter, although he lacks any elite abilities as far as I’m concerned. Sandhagen’s record in fights that lasted three rounds or more is merely 1-2, worth noting against a guy like Chito Vera.

Bottom Line

A five-round fight, in my opinion, skews this fight in Vera’s favor as he wins a tight one and sends Sandman into uncharted territory deep in the fight. With some of the best cardio in the entire promotion, I expect Vera to be close or even lose the opening two rounds but rack up points late as he strikes Sandhagen from a distance and impresses the judges.

Best Bet: Marlon Vera (+145 via DraftKings)

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