UFC Fight Night Adesanya vs. Pyfer Picks & Bets (Seattle)
There are a lot of intriguing fights on this weekend's UFC Fight Night card from Seattle, Washington. All roads lead to a ranked Middleweight division tilt in the main event, as (#4) Israel Adesanya squares off against the up-and-coming (#14) Joe Pyfer. I've got you covered from a betting angle for the headliner, as well as two others from the Fight Night card. Let's dive into my top bets for UFC Seattle on March 28th.
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UFC Fight Night Adesanya vs. Pyfer Picks & Bets (Seattle)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Israel Adesanya (-148) vs. Joe Pyfer (+124)
Former champion Israel Adesanya has struggled recently, dropping his last three fights in the UFC octagon. He's a moderate -148 moneyline favorite to snap the slide against the rising Joe Pyfer. Pyfer (+124) has won three straight outings, most recently taking care of Abus Magomedov (SUB - Rear Naked Choke) in October 2025.
This line opened as a pick 'em, and we've since seen money come in on the former champ, pushing him out to a -148 favorite. I'm jumping on Israel Adesanya before this moneyline price gets out of control.
Now, yes, Adesanya's chin has failed him in recent years, and it's also fair to question his overall speed at the age of 36. However, "The Last Stylebender" still has incredible takedown defense, boasting a 76% career rate, and I think he'll be able to lean on that to make Joe Pyfer a one-trick pony.
I also have to question Pyfer's stamina. He's a massive dude who has only fought a full 25-minute bout once, a losing effort to Jack Hermansson. I don't think anyone will be surprised if Adesanya, the more experienced, veteran brawler, wins this one if he's able to drag it into the championship rounds. As long as Izzy can avoid getting flatlined by Pyfer, which I believe he'll manage to keep his distance since he's a lengthy guy, then he should be able to grind out a victory.
Pick: Israel Adesanya Moneyline (-148)
Alex Grasso (+154) vs. Maycee Barber (-185)
The co-main event of the evening is a top-five clash in the Women's Flyweight division. (#3) Alexa Grasso, despite being the higher-ranked brawler, is a +154 underdog against (#5) Maycee Barber. The latter comes back at -185 to notch her eighth consecutive victory in the UFC.
You have to go back to February 2021 to find Maycee Barber's last defeat, and the only reason I mention this is because it came at the hands of Alexa Grasso (U-DEC). Now we're getting a plus-money payout to back a fighter who has already defeated an opponent? Sign me up for that!
While Grasso is just 0-2-1 in her last three fights, one of the defeats came against an all-time great in Valentina Shevchenko. She also drew against Shevchenko in a title fight. I think this fight is much closer to a pick 'em, so I'm going to take the +154 shot that comes with Grasso.
In terms of statistics, these women are eerily similar. Both are averaging north of 4.0 significant strikes per minute, own takedown defense rates in the 50% range, and have strike defense rates in the mid-to-upper 50% range as well. We're likely looking at another fight where the judges weigh in, as neither fighter has excellent finishing capabilities. Let's just ride with Grasso at plus-money in what should be a tight, back-and-forth fight.
Pick: Alexa Grasso Moneyline (+154)
Marcin Tybura (+114) vs. Tyrell Fortune (-135)
Someone needs to save the Heavyweight division and the promotion is hoping that Tyrell Fortune can provide some fireworks at 265 Lbs. The 35-year-old is a slight favorite in his UFC debut, as he takes on 40-year-old (#8) Marcin Tybura (+114). This fight is on the prelims, so make sure to lock this wager in early so you don't miss it.
I'm going to ride with the UFC rookie on Saturday night. Tyrell Fortune is a knockout artist, owning a 17-3-0 (2 NC) record where he has amassed 11 punchouts. We just saw Marcin Tybura suffer a first-round knockout from Ante Delija in September 2025, which was the sixth time he has been put to sleep across his 37-fight career (27-10).
Fortune can also wrestle, as he's a former NJCAA and NCAA Division II champion during his younger years. Whether or not he uses it offensively is a different question, but having a wrestling background should help him defend against Tybura and his 1.38 takedowns per 15 minutes. I'll lay the juice and back the younger, heavy-handed Fortune in Seattle on Saturday. It could also be worth a sprinkle to bet on a Fortune knockout at +130.
Pick: Tyrell Fortune Moneyline (-135)