UFC Fight Night: Andrei Arlovski vs. Carlos Felipe Betting Guide (2021)
Two more UFC Apex-hosted events lie between now and the companies’ return to Abu Dhabi as UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont is officially upon us. However, before the ladies go at it in the main, a heavyweight bout is scheduled for the co-main between two guys in Andrei Arlovski and Carlos Felipe trying to break into the top 10 of the division.
In what is a classic veteran vs. newcomer matchup, who has the edge? Let’s take a closer look.
Sign up at BetMGM and get a Deposit Match up to $500 >>
Betting Profile: Andrei Arlovski (31-20-0)
| Andrei Arlovski | -110 | -115 | -115 | -110 |
| Carlos Felipe | -110 | -105 | -110 | -110 |
Last Five Fights
| W | L | W | W | L |
One of the true OG’s of the UFC, Arlovski, joined the company back at UFC 28 in November of 2005, fighting under contract for eight years before venturing off to Strikeforce and some other lower-tier promotions. Rejoining in 2013, he followed up a four-fight win streak with eight losses in 11 fights as he has yet to find the same consistency since.
The last time we saw him inside the octagon was an April 2021 fight vs. Chase Sherman, a unanimous decision win. Like almost all heavyweights, Arlovski has a stand and throw style, landing 3.08 strikes per minute, with 41% significant. While he has undoubtedly lost the vicious power we saw early on in his career, Arlovksi’s technical game has become that much more potent, and his 35 fights in the UFC are 13 ahead of the next active fighter. And his wins are four ahead, as well. (Both Derrick Lewis).
Betting Profile: Carlos Felipe (11-1-0)
Last Five Fights
| W | W | W | L | W |
The 26-year-old from Brazil made his UFC debut in the summer of 2020, a majority decision (one judge scored a draw) loss against Sergey Spivak in Abu Dhabi in which he showed signs of why he earned the contract in the first place. His three fights since have all been improvements, picking up decision wins in each of them but failing to show the KO ability he did in the eight professional fights prior, six of which he ended by KO/TKO.
His 4.88 strikes landed per minute include 46% of which have been significant, but his hesitation within the promotion has almost come back to bite him on multiple occasions.
Bottom Line?
At this point in his young career, Felipe is a decisive win away from a shot at a top 10 fighter, and he and his team have to see this as the window. But, unfortunately, I think the heavyweight guardsman that is Arlovski might have something to say about that.
Sherman lost his fight to Arlovski in April in the later rounds, clearly winning the first as Arlovski gassed him out over the final two. I expect a similar outcome here, as the younger Felipe has shown similar tendencies and done little in his first few fights in the UFC to show he’s the caliber of fighter who belongs for the long run.
Pick: Arlovski -110
Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategies — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Johnny Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Johnny, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.