UFC Fight Night Aspinall vs Tybura: Odds, Picks & Predictions

by Andrew Mintner |
Jul 21, 2023

Well, that was arguably our worst card of the year. Chelsea Chandler running from Norma Dumont in the middle of the fight pretty much summed up our entire card. No worries, though; we have a solid card this week to hold us over until UFC 291 next week. Tom Aspinall makes his return and hoping to have a good showing after his freak injury in his last fight. London cards have come through in huge ways in the past, and let’s hope it is the same result this Saturday. Let’s dive in!!!!

UFC Fight Night Aspinall vs. Tybura: Odds, Picks & Predictions

Record:

ML: 19-13-1 (+5.35 units)
Props: 5-13-1 (-3.80 units)
Parlays 1-13 (-5.09 units)
Overall -3.54 units

MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success.

We will examine numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets, but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport. Let’s look at the statistics to help us make our best bets.

Glossary

Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)

The main key to this analysis is looking at each fighter’s last three fights. This indicates a fighter’s form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let’s dive into some of our best bets for this upcoming UFC card.

Molly McCann (-210) vs Julia Stoliarenko (+180)

Molly McCann

Dist Acc Off: 48.22%
Dist Att/Min: 20.89
Dist Def: 63%
KD%: 2.1% (2 KDs out of 95 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 24.1%
Control % Def: 22.8%

Julia Stoliarenko

Dist Acc Off: 47.91%
Dist Att/Min: 17.75
Dist Def: 46%
KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 69 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 3.1%
Control % Def: 56.3%

There are two glaring weaknesses that stand out to me. Stoliarenko has an abysmal 46% Distance defense (UFC average is 63%) and a Control % Def of 56.3. I do not see any advantages for her against McCann here. I see McCann pretty much dominating in every facet.

Bet: Molly McCann (-210) and McCann by KO/TKO (+140)

Nathaniel Wood (-205) vs. Andre Fili (+175)

Nathaniel Wood

Dist Acc Off: 47.01%
Dist Att/Min: 17.51
Dist Def: 62%
KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 299 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 13.1%
Control % Def: 6.1%

Andre Fili

Dist Acc Off: 43.25%
Dist Att/Min: 14.79
Dist Def: 52%
KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 93 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 23.54%
Control % Def: 8.71%

The biggest difference between these two fighters lies in their distance defense. Fili gets hit at a significantly higher rate than Wood. Wood is also slightly more accurate and fights at a higher pace. Wood has the potential to shine bright in his home country.

Bet: Nathaniel Wood (-205)

Tom Aspinall (-475) vs Marcin Tybura (+350)

Tom Aspinall

Dist Acc Off: 59.49%
Dist Att/Min: 9.92
Dist Def: 58%
KD%: 2.1% (1 KD out of 47 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 34.1%
Control % Def: 0%

Marcin Tybura

Dist Acc Off: 40.95%
Dist Att/Min: 10.77
Dist Def: 63%
KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 129 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 21.62%
Control % Def: 15.69%

The main event gives us the return of Tom Aspinall after a tragic injury in his last fight. Aspinall is seen as one of the biggest threats in the Heavyweight Division. Aspinall is a versatile fighter. He has an elite distance accuracy percentage of 59.49% (UFC average is 37%) and an elite offense control percentage of 34.1. That makes him an extremely tough matchup for anyone. I do not see Tybura giving him much trouble anywhere in this fight.

Bet: Aspinall by KO/TKO (-165) and Aspinall Round 1 Finish (-110)

The Bets

All England Parlay

Aspinall Round 1 Finish (-110)
Molly McCann (-210)
Nathaniel Wood (-205)

Parlay odds: +306 for 1 unit

Props Parlay

Aspinall KO/TKO (-165)
McCann KO/TKO (+140)
Wood KO/TKO (+450)

Parlay odds: +2020 for .5 unit

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or if you have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

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UFC Fight Night Aspinall vs Tybura: Odds, Picks & Predictions