UFC Fight Night: Best Longshot Odds & Picks (7/9)

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev is set to get underway this Saturday at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nev. We are in store for a great night of fighting with a card that features a lot of up-and-comers on the UFC roster, headlined by what should be a brawl between two lightweight contenders in Rafael Dos Anjos and Rafael Fiziev.

We are coming off a monster week at UFC 276 where we profited 11.74u, as I hit Jalin Turner via submission at 7/1 and Andre Muniz via decision at 6/1. We will look to replicate that performance this Saturday.

Below, I will walk through my three best longshot prop bets to make for this card.

These plays are one unit each, or 1% of your betting bankroll. Follow me on Twitter to get all of my plays on days without full write-ups.

Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Saidyokub Kakhramonov to Win via Submission (+800)

In the first fight of the night, we have a bantamweight bout between prospects Ronnie Lawrence and Saidyokub Kakhramonov. This scrap will most likely be spent on the mat, which instantly gives us a shot at a submission prop for either fighter.

Ronnie Lawrence enters this contest with an 8-1 professional record and he’s 3-0 since entering the UFC. Despite this sparkling record, Lawrence is a short favorite at around -120, which is most likely due to how his most recent fight went against Mana Martinez.

While Lawrence won the fight via unanimous decision and even recorded a few knockdowns in the first two rounds, Martinez dominated in the third round and quite frankly should have finished him. After Martinez dropped him, Lawrence got stuck in both an armbar and a triangle in a wild exchange that Lawrence somehow stuck out until the final bell.

If Saidyokub Kakhramonov gets Lawrence in a similar situation, I do not think he gets out of it. As an unranked prospect, Kakhramonov boasts a 9-2 professional record and is 1-0 in the UFC.

That one UFC victory was via submission when Kakhramonov was able to lock in a guillotine that made opponent Trevin Jones go unconscious. This result was no fluke either, as it was the second time Kakhramonov was able to lock in a guillotine during that scrap, with Jones narrowly breaking free of the first one.

The most impressive part of Kakhramonov’s UFC debut? He took the fight on less than a week’s notice.

If Kakhramonov is to advance to 2-0 in the UFC, I would not be surprised at all if it was with his grappling.

Tresean Gore to Win via Submission (+1300)

We are taking another longshot prop that involves a fighter winning via submission, Tresean Gore. Gore is squaring off in a middleweight bout against Cody Brundage.

While bookmakers opened up this fight as a pick ’em, the line quickly shifted in favor of Gore. This bout will be Gore’s second contest in the UFC, and oddsmakers initially overreacted to the fact that Gore lost in his debut to TUF rival Bryan Battle via unanimous decision.

Battle’s range was the main reason Gore lost that fight, and that is a dynamic that is nonexistent in this bout against Brundage, as Gore boasts a three-inch reach advantage this time around. Gore’s takedown ability was showcased in that bout against Battle, and it is that skill that he may rely on against Brundage.

The reason why Gore may go for the takedown once again is that Brundage struggles in defending them. Between each of his last two fights, Brundage’s opponents are 5-for-16 on takedown attempts.

While that percentage is “take it or leave it”, the fact that Brundage has hit the mat five times over his last 18:41 of fight time is the reason I believe Gore’s camp will focus on takedowns for this fight. Fighting in Atlanta’s American Top Team division, Gore is coming from a good camp that knows how to prep for fights as well as most camps in the world.

If I am right that this fight will spend time on the mat due to Gore’s takedown abilities, then 13/1 is too good of a price to pass up for him to submit Brundage.

Michael Johnson to Win via Decision (+550)

The last longshot bet we are taking on this card is for lightweight Michael Johnson to win his bout via decision against Jamie Mullarkey. Mullarkey opened as a relatively big favorite and has since settled around the -265 price range, which is very warranted as Mullarkey is a good prospect in this division.

Johnson is clearly a divisional “gatekeeper” test for Mullarkey, though he is a remarkably tough one at that. This bout will be Johnson’s 39th professional fight and 26th in the UFC, and he has some incredible wins in his lengthy career as he has knocked out Dustin Poirier and beat Tony Ferguson via decision.

Facing pretty much every big name in this division over the last 10 years, Johnson has also squared off and lost to Justin Gaethje, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Beneil Dariush. This experience far outweighs that of Mullarkey, who has just five fights in the UFC under his belt with three of those being losses.

Of those three losses, two were via unanimous decision as Mullarkey has proven to have a strong chin. Mullarkey’s one loss inside the distance was when he got knocked out by Jalin Turner, who cemented himself as a legitimate contender in this division following his fifth straight finish with a first-round submission against Brad Riddell at UFC 276.

Michael Johnson had his back against the wall in his last bout against Alan Patrick, a fight that he won with a second-round knockout. That fight would have been Johnson’s fifth straight loss and probably release from the UFC.

However, Johnson discussed after the fight how he found “new light” during that camp and that he had been in an extremely dark place prior. Speaking of camps, Johnson has been training with Kill Cliff FC (formerly known as Sanford MMA), which is arguably one of (if not) the best camps in the world.

His corner could have a big advantage over Mullarkey, who has been training with Magnus Martial Arts Erina. Give me the veteran in this fight, as he makes one last push in this sport.

Best of luck!

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.