UFC Fight Night: Curtis Blaydes vs. Chris Daukaus Betting Guide (2022)
The heavyweight division will be on display Saturday night in Columbus, OH, as a pair of top 10s in Curtis Blaydes and Chris Daukaus will square off. Before the main event goes off, however, a great night of fight is on deck as Joanne Wood and Alexa Grasso will serve as the co-main event of the evening.
With the winner of this fight taking one step closer to a shot for the title, let’s take a look at both fighters and see how things might play out.
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| Curtis Blaydes | -385 | -400 | -417 | -400 |
| Chris Daukaus | +290 | +300 | +315 | +300 |
Betting Profile: Curtis Blaydes (15-3-0)
Last Five Fights
| W | L | W | W | W |
Curtis Blaydes’ last loss also came against Lewis in February of 2021, a loss he has since claimed revenge for in a decision win over Jairzinho Rozenstruik in September at UFC 266. Outside of Lewis, current heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou is the only other professional fighter to have a win over Blaydes in (or outside of) the UFC.
A closer look at his metrics shows exactly why. Coming into this fight, Blaydes not only possesses a significant striking accuracy of 62.3%, which is 8% higher than that of Daukaus but a massive grappling edge. His 6.3 takedowns per 15 minutes and 54% takedown accuracy is amongst the best in the division.
Betting Profile: Chris Daukaus (12-4-0)
Last Five Fights
| L | W | W | W | W |
For Daukaus, all eyes will be on how he responds to his first loss in the UFC, a first-round knockout at the hands of Derrick Lewis back in December. The former police officer will now have to bounce back and quickly, as he’ll have his hands just as full with a fighter in Blaydes who can end a fight multiple ways.
The one edge Daukaus does have statistically is his striking volume. Coming into Saturday, he is landing 7.71 significant strikes per minute, double that of Blaydes.
Bottom Line
While it goes without saying heavyweights have a propensity to end fights early, a closer look at these guys’ numbers cements my position in this bet. Over their last 10 combined fights, seven have ended in the third round or sooner. For Daukaus, only one of his 16 professional fights has gone to decision, and none in the UFC have gone more than 1:23 into the second round.
I do lean Blaydes to get it done, but this gives us more than one out.
Pick: Fight to Star Round 4? – No (-152)
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