UFC Fight Night De Ridder vs. Allen Picks & Predictions (Vancouver)
After a bit of a lull in the high-stakes UFC action, the promotion is ramping up the quality of fights to close out 2025. That includes this weekend's Fight Night card in Vancouver, Canada, where we have three ranked bouts on the docket. The marquee clash comes in the Middleweight division, as #4 Reinier de Ridder squares off against Canada's own #9 Brendan Allen. Below, I'll break down the main event, as well as the two other ranked fights, from a betting perspective. Here are my top UFC Fight Night bets this weekend.
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UFC Fight Night de Ridder vs. Allen Picks & Bets (Vancouver)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Reinier de Ridder (-198) vs. Brendan Allen (+164)
This will be #4 Reinier de Ridder's fifth fight with the promotion, and with the way he's trending, it's only a matter of time until he gets a title shot. He's nearly a 2-to-1 favorite to take care of #9 Brendan Allen this weekend, who's just 1-2 in his last three contests.
I'm a bit surprised to be getting a +100 payout with Reinier de Ridder to win by finish. The Dutch brawler has been a "finishing machine," racking up 18 finishes (13 SUB, 5 KO) across his 21-2-0 MMA career. Three of his four UFC wins have come by finish.
As for Brendan Allen, he seems to be slipping into that gatekeeper role in the division. He's skilled enough to beat some up-and-comers and some of the mid-tier guys, but when stepping up against elite competition, it hasn't gone well for the 29-year-old.
Allen's 25-7-0 in his career, and he has suffered three losses by finish (2 KO, 1 SUB). He (56% takedown defense rate) just conceded four takedowns on eight attempts against Anthony Hernandez earlier this year, and I don't expect his defense to hold up well against another elite grappler of de Ridder's caliber. With a full 25 minutes to work with, I think de Ridder finds a submission or a ground-and-pound finish in the middle rounds.
Pick: Reinier de Ridder To Win By Finish (+100)
Marlon Vera (+105) vs. Aiemann Zahabi (-125)
We have a Bantamweight banger on Saturday's card, as #7 Marlon Vera squares off against the upward-trending #9 Aiemann Zahabi. Zahabi, a Quebec native, is riding a six-fight winning streak, and he's a slight favorite against "Chito" Vera, who has dropped two straight and hasn't fought in 14 months.
Our Betting Pros odds comparison tool states that this fight opened up with Aiemann Zahabi as high as a -204 moneyline favorite. There has been a ton of betting action coming in on Marlon Vera, and rightfully so, because this guy is a grizzled veteran who has power and upside. However, now that he's down to +105, I think the value has evaporated with "Chito." It's time to buy back and ride with Zahabi, who's on fire with a six-fight winning streak and competing in front of his fellow countrymen.
My biggest issue with Vera, and this has basically been the handicap on his for years, is that he's such a slow starter. He almost always gives up a round before finally turning it on late. Well, in a three-round fight, there's really no time to go down 0-1. And then I also factor in that Vera is getting hit at a considerable rate. He's eating 5.37 significant strikes per minute and has a strike defense rate of just 50%. We'll likely see a full 15-minute fight here, but if Vera starts slow and continues to absorb strikes at this high rate, you can start to see how it'll be tough for him to win on the judges' scorecards. Let's ride with Zahabi.
Pick: Aiemann Zahabi Moneyline (-125)
Manon Fiorot (-225) vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius (+185)
There's a top-five battle in the Women's Flyweight division this weekend, and it's no surprise to see #2 Manon Fiorot out to a -225 favorite against #5 Jasmine Jasudavicius. Fiorot is in the midst of a 7-1 UFC run, and she'll square off against Ontario's Jasudavicius, who enters with a five-fight winning streak of her own.
Manon Fiorot lost her first pro fight and her last bout, which means there's a 12-fight winning streak in between those two contests. Fiorot's only loss in the last seven years came at the hands of Valentina Shevchenko in a title fight, in which she lost a tight five-round decision that was scored 48-47 across the board. This woman is a legit championship contender, and I'm expecting her to bounce back and secure a victory on Saturday night.
She'll take on a tough opponent in Jasmine Jasudavicius, but she's mostly committed to wrestling and trying to dominate on the canvas. The Canadian-born brawler is 14-3-0 with four submissions on her resume. However, Fiorot is big and strong for the division, rightfully earning the moniker "The Beast." She boasts an 87% takedown defense rate, and I just can't see Jasudavicius getting her to the ground for any substantial amount of time.
The sports betting market expects this fight to go the distance (-360), and I agree. I'll knock off some of the -225 juice and bring it down to -150 by saying Fiorot collects the win by points. Take Fiorot by decision.
Pick: Manon Fiorot To Win By Decision (-225)