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UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill Best Bets, Picks & Predictions (2023)

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Overall an extremely rough week.  A couple of fights did not go our way, and that’s the nature of the fight business. We have another solid lineup of fights this week that present substantial value. Let’s dive in and see if we can get to the window with some winners!!

Record:

  • ML 8-6-1 (+.25 units)
  • Props 3-7-1 (-3.25 units)
  • Parlays 0-6 (-3 units)
  • Overall (-6 units)

MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success. We are going to look at numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport. Let’s look at the statistics that will help us make our best bets.

Glossary

  • Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
  • Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
  • Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
  • Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of Distance Strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
  • Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average. Higher defense equals better defense)
  • KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
  • Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
  • Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
  • Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)

The main key to this analysis is we are going to look at each fighter’s last three fights. This is more indicative of a fighter’s form and general ability than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let’s dive into some of our best bets for this upcoming UFC card.

Anthony Hernandez (-215) vs Edmen Shahbazyan (+185)

Anthony Hernandez

  • Dist Acc Off: 51.8%
  • Dist Att/Min: 18.24
  • Dist Def: 63%
  • KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 55 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 61.9%
  • Control % Def: 20.8%

Edmen Shahbazyan

  • Dist Acc Off: 47.7%
  • Dist Att/Min: 10.20
  • Dist Def: 58%
  • KD%: 0% (o KDs out of 86 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 16.1%
  • Control % Def: 32.8%

This fight is pretty straightforward. Hernandez is elite in offensive control (63%), and more active at a distance (18.24 Att/Min). I do not see an area where Edmen is better. Hernandez will control every facet of this fight and will wear Edmen down as the fight progresses. Hernandez -215 and Hernandez by submission +165 are both in play.

Joaquin Buckley (-225) vs Andre Fialho (+190)

Joaquin Buckley

  • Dist Acc Off: 26.8%
  • Dist Att/Min: 16.37
  • Dist Def: 66%
  • KD%: 1.7% (2 KDs out of  115 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 2.5%
  • Control % Def: 17.7%

Andre Fialho

  • Dist Acc Off: 36.3%
  • Dist Att/Min: 7.11
  • Dist Def: 45%
  • KD%: 2.01% (1 KD out of 48 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 1.7%
  • Control % Def: 14.8%

The vast majority of this fight will be fought at a distance and if that’s the case Buckley has a clear path to victory. Fialho’s distance defense of 45% is abysmal and his lack of activity with 7.11 Att/Min is not a great combination. Buckley is not incredibly accurate at distance (26.8%) but his volume will make up for that shortcoming. Buckley at -225 is in play and because of Fialho’s defense, Buckley by KO at +100 is also on the table.

Carlos Diego Ferreira (-155) vs Michael Johnson (+135)

Carlos Diego Ferreira

  • Dist Acc Off: 36.5%
  • Dist Att/Min: 13.99
  • Dist Def: 50%
  • KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 90 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 6.2%
  • Control % Def: 40.9%

Michael Johnson

  • Dist Acc Off: 41.2%
  • Dist Att/Min: 11.30
  • Dist Def: 58%
  • KD%: 1.2% (2 KDs out of 162 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 8.1%
  • Control % Def: 1.2%

We have another fight that will take place at a distance. Ferreira has two red flags, his distance defense (50%) and control % def (40.9%). Michael Johnson is not elite when it comes to control % offense but it is a path to victory if he wants to take it there. Johnson’s overall accuracy and defense advantages are where I see him excelling in this fight. Johnson +135 has plenty of value.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-130) vs Vanessa Demopoulos (+110)

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

  • Dist Acc Off: 43.8%
  • Dist Att/Min: 17.20
  • Dist Def: 67.2%
  • KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 132 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 27.4%
  • Control % Def: 12.1%

Vanessa Demopoulos

  • Dist Acc Off: 39.2%
  • Dist Att/Min: 8.39
  • Dist Def: 51%
  • KD%: 1.6% (1 KD out of 62 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 37.6%
  • Control % Def: 4.2%

This card has a lot of fights that are essentially the same on paper, and here we are again noting a fighter with low-volume output and subpar defense. Demopoulos has a below-average distance defense (51%) paired with a horrendous dist att/min of 8.39. Demopoulos’ only path to victory is to control this fight on the ground, but I just don’t see that materializing. Karolina -130 is the play.

Mackenzie Dern (-170) vs Angela Hill (+145)

Mackenzie Dern

  • Dist Acc Off: 30.2%
  • Dist Att/Min: 11.42
  • Dist Def: 47%
  • KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 134 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 29.3%
  • Control % Def: 10.6%

Angela Hill

  • Dist Acc Off: 40.9%
  • Dist Att/Min: 15.61
  • Dist Def: 65%
  • KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 223 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 6%
  • Control % Def: 16.3%

This is a classic striker vs grappler matchup. Dern’s control % off is good but not elite (29.3%). Hill’s control % def is also good but not elite (16.3%). It is pretty straightforward if Dern does not get this to a control position, she is going to get peppered for five straight rounds. I am going with Hill as she has a bigger advantage on the feet than Dern has in control positions. Hill +145 is the play.

The Bets

ML Parlay

  • Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-130)
  • Joaquin Buckley (-225)
  • Angela Hill (+145)

Parlay Odds: +526
This gives us three fighters with clear advantages and clear paths to victory.

Props Parlay

  • Anthony Hernandez by Submission (+165)
  • Michael Johnson Moneyline (+135)

Parlay Odds: +522
Hernandez by submission is my favorite play of the whole card, pairing that with Johnson who has an advantage on the feet gives us a solid payout.

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You can find me on Twitter @goldendomer622 if you have any questions about the process or comments in general. Tune into our next article. Good luck with your bets this weekend!!!!