UFC Fight Night Dern vs. Yan: Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions
Mackenzie Dern will fight Xiaonan Yan in the main event of a card that features a few veterans of the sport. The UFC Apex will once again host a Fight Night event, but the media will not be at this event. Fans also will not be in attendance, and Dana White is playing it close to the vest, not giving any information as to why. Regarding the fights, there are quite a few heavy favorites and below are the best based on matchup.
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Leg 1: Sodiq Yusuff money line (-1050)
Yussuf is the heaviest favorite on the card, and there are good reasons for that. He has a four-inch reach advantage and a three-inch height advantage over his opponent, Don Shainis. Yussuf is 5-1 in the UFC, while Shainis is making his debut. Yussuf is a difficult matchup for a debut, as he is ranked 12th in the featherweight division. He has multiple fights in Bellator and Cage Titans FC, so he is experienced, but the UFC is another level. He has also fought four times already this year, winning all of them, three by knockout.
Sodiq Yussuf will be a hard challenge for Shainis. He lands 5.22 strikes per minute, absorbs 3.63 strikes per minute, and is a much better striker than Shainis. He also has good takedown defense (68%) and does well at getting up when he does get taken down. That is what Shainis’ game is centered around, and it could be a tough night for him. Yussuf gets it done by decision or knockout.
Leg 2: Randy Brown money line (-325)
Francisco Trinaldo is a tough fight for anyone, even at age 44. He has never been knocked out and has fought every year since 2012 in the UFC. That is a difficult task to accomplish and proves his durability. Randy Brown has been competing in the UFC since 2016 and is an active fighter. He beat Khaos Williams in May and has won his last three fights. Brown will have an eight-inch reach advantage, which will help him pick apart “Massaranduba†at range. Brown lands at a clip of 4.42 strikes per minute and absorbs 3.32 per minute. It is also worth noting that when there is a 12-year age difference in fighters, the younger fighter wins at a 73% clip. Brown should have no problem stuffing takedowns (71% takedown defense) and win this fight by landing enough volume to win on the scorecards.
Leg 3: Mackenzie Dern money line (-230)
The main event of the evening will be a strawweight bout between the number five and six ranked opponents, Mackenzie Dern and Xiaonan Yan, respectively. The winner will put themselves one step closer to a title shot. Dern is the superior grappler in this fight and is known for her jiu-jitsu. She has won by submission four times in the UFC while only losing twice, both by decision. Yan has lost by submission before, but it was in 2010 on a smaller promotion. She also has not faced anyone with the level of jiu-jitsu that Dern has because Dern is arguably the best in the division. Yan will have a slight edge on the feet, but Dern has improved her striking in her recent fights. Dern only needs this fight to find the mat once to show her superior ability and lock in a submission.
Parlay: +105 on DraftKings
DraftKings is the best place to play this parlay, and betting enough to win one unit is the best way to attack it. The main event starts at 7 p.m. EDT on ESPN+.
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