UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria Odds, Picks & Predictions
What an incredible card from last week! We ended up cashing our first parlay, and we were so close to a Jared Cannonier KO cashing a massive prop parlay. Alas, we cashed our regular ML parlay and went 3-1 overall ML and 1-1 in props.
This week we have an incredible card featuring some of the best prospects coming up through numerous weight classes. It does have an early start in the afternoon, so you won’t have to stay up all night to watch the main event. Let’s dive in and see if we can get to the window with some winners.
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UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Record
- ML 14-9-1 (+3.30 units)
- Props 4-8-1 (-2.60 units)
- Parlays 1-9 (-2.59 units)
- Overall (-1.89 units)
MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success.
We will examine numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets, but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport. Let’s look at the statistics to help us make our best bets.
Glossary
- Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
- Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
- Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
- Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
- Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
- KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
- Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
- Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
- Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)
The main key to this analysis is looking at each fighter’s last three fights. This indicates a fighter’s form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let’s dive into some of our best bets for this upcoming UFC card.
Tabatha Ricci (-135) vs Gillian Robertson (+115)
Tabatha Ricci
- Dist Acc Off: 34.75%
- Dist Att/Min: 11.92
- Dist Def: 67%
- KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 65 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 56.1%
- Control % Def: .4%
Gillian Robertson
- Dist Acc Off: 36.3%
- Dist Att/Min: 10.65
- Dist Def: 58%
- KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 61 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 36.5%
- Control % Def: 14.2%
We have two very similar fighters here regarding pace, accuracy and power. Neither contains one-punch power. They are both looking to take the fight into a control position. Tabatha Ricci has incredible distance defense and, paired with an elite control % offense of 56.1%, makes her a formidable foe. Gillian Robertson, on the other hand, has a similar profile when it comes to control. She will look to use her elite BJJ skills to secure either a submission or enforce her will via ground and pound. I will go with Robertson simply because this seems to be a huge step up in class for Ricci.
Brenden Allen (-190) vs Bruno Silva (+160)
Brenden Allen
- Dist Acc Off: 33.3%
- Dist Att/Min: 14.47
- Dist Def: 56%
- KD%: 1% (1 KD out of 100 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 22.7%
- Control % Def: 20.5%
Bruno Silva
- Dist Acc Off: 38.3%
- Dist Att/Min: 11.13
- Dist Def: 56%
- KD%: 1% (1 KD out of 100 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 10.9%
- Control % Def: 11.5%
There are two main differences between these two fighters’ profiles. Brendan Allen is slightly more active and has a higher Control % Offense. Since everything else is similar, I lean on Allen, who has a more concrete path to victory. Bruno Silva prefers the standup but fights at a slower pace than Allen.
Amanda Ribas (-200) vs Maycee Barber (+170)
Amanda Ribas
- Dist Acc Off: 40.4%
- Dist Att/Min: 20.01
- Dist Def: 69%
- KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 226 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 30.8%
- Control % Def: 7.1%
Maycee Barber
- Dist Acc Off: 37.7%
- Dist Att/Min: 10.76
- Dist Def: 65%
- KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 65 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 21.3%
- Control % Def: 43.1%
This fight is pretty straightforward. Amanda Ribas is better in almost every single facet of this fight. Maycee Barber has had some extremely fortuitous decisions over her last several fights. Barber’s control defense of 43.1% is extremely alarming. Ribas also fights at essentially twice the pace at a distance. I don’t see a path to victory for Barber. Ribas -200 can be played confidently.
Ilia Topuria (-345) vs Josh Emmett (+285)
Ilia Topuria
- Dist Acc Off: 45.9%
- Dist Att/Min: 11.01
- Dist Def: 64%
- KD%: 4.1% (3 KDs out of 73 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 22.5%
- Control % Def: 9.2%
Josh Emmett
- Dist Acc Off: 32.1%
- Dist Att/Min: 11.55
- Dist Def: 61%
- KD%: .5% (1 KDs out of 167 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 7.8%
- Control % Def: .7%
Ilia Topuria is probably the biggest threat to Alexander Volkanovski’s reign at Featherweight. He is well-rounded and can end the fight anywhere. Josh Emmett has the most KDs in featherweight history, but that hasn’t shown up lately. Topuria has shown some heavy hands of late, with an incredible 4.1% KD rate over the last three fights. Emmett was exposed in the last fight, for not being able to handle the versatility of Yair Rodriguez. I think that will be the same result in this fight.
The Bets
ML Parlay
This gives us four fighters with clear identities and direct paths to victory. I feel confident enough with this parlay to bet one unit.
Parlay Odds: +540
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You can find me on Twitter @goldendomer622 if you have any questions about the process or comments in general. Tune into our next Fight Night article, and good luck with your bets this weekend.