UFC Fight Night Emmett vs. Topuria: Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
The UFC is finally out of the Apex and will be live at the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Fla. Josh Emmett will put his top-five ranking on the line as he takes on undefeated prospect Ilia Topuria. Amanda Ribas and Maycee Barber will fight in the co-main event, and many other veterans will fight on the undercard. The prelims start at 11:30 a.m. ET on ESPN, and the main card begins at 3 p.m. on ABC.
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UFC Fight Night Emmett vs. Topuria: Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
2023 total: Down 10.44 units | Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Leg 1: Jose “Chepe†Mariscal Money Line (+100)
Jose “Chepe†Mariscal is replacing Victor Martinez on short notice and is fighting Trevor Peek. Peek has an undefeated record as a professional, with eight victories, all by knockout. Mariscal is 13-6 but has faced some serious competition. It will be his UFC debut, but hardly the first time he has fought somebody currently on the UFC roster.
Peek is a solid matchup for Mariscal, even on short notice. Peek has heavy hands and applies constant pressure but can get taken down. He was taken down four times in his UFC debut and Contender Series fights. Mariscal is a solid wrestler and has good striking. He needs to mix things up enough to make Peek uncomfortable. Peek has only been out of the first round twice in his career, so it would be wise for Mariscal to test his cardio and extend the fight as long as possible.
Leg 2: Randy Brown Money Line (-230)
Wellington Turman is moving to Welterweight, as he had mixed results in the Middleweight division. He will fight Randy Brown, who is large for the Welterweight division. Brown will have a three-inch height and six-inch reach advantage over the former Middleweight. Brown will also have the striking and speed advantage. He lands 4.39 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.30 strikes per minute.
Turman lands 2.92 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.79 strikes per minute. Turman will want to get the fight to the mat since that is Brown’s weakest skill. He lands 1.79 takedowns per 15 minutes and has superior jiujitsu skills over Brown. Brown will want to defend takedowns and keep things on the feet where he can pick Turman apart. It will be a clash of styles, but Brown’s takedown defense (71%) should hold up against Turman, who will be cutting more weight than usual.
Leg 3: Ilia Topuria Money Line (-345)
Ilia Topuria is taking on Josh Emmett in the main event and will want to make a statement to move into the top-five rankings. Emmett is a perfect opponent for Topuria. Emmett’s weakness lies in his grappling ability. He has heavy hands and slick boxing but has only defended 58% of takedowns in his UFC career. He averages 1.07 takedowns landed per 15 minutes but has holes in his game on the mat. Yair Rodriguez submitted him from the bottom position in his last fight after softening his defense with ground and pound. Topuria should have the same game plan heading into this fight.
From Emmett’s perspective, a win over Topuria is the fastest way back into the title conversation. He is 38 years old and is running out of time to make a run for a title shot. A victory over Topuria, who is 13-0, would go a long way for him in the eyes of Dana White and the matchmakers. He can make this competitive on the feet, but he has to remain standing for that to happen. Topuria is a talented striker, landing 3.32 significant strikes per minute and absorbing 2.75 strikes per minute. Emmett lands 4.17 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.43 strikes per minute. A striking match would be much closer, but Topuria could still edge out a victory there. Topuria has youth and speed on his side, and Emmett will need his best effort to find a win.
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