UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos Picks & Predictions (UFC APEX)
Following an epic UFC 326 card, the promotion returns to the APEX for an exciting Fight Night card featuring three ranked fights. The headliner comes in the Featherweight Division, as Josh Emmett (No. 11) takes on Kevin Vallejos (No 14). Below, I'll dive into that fight, along with two others, from a sports betting angle. Here are my top bets for this weekend's UFC Fight Night event.
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UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos Picks & Bets (UFC APEX)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Josh Emmett (+410) vs. Kevin Vallejos (-550)
Kevin Vallejos has rattled off four straight wins in the UFC, and he comes in as a massive -550 Moneyline favorite against the aging Josh Emmett. The 41-year-old Emmett is on a 1-4 run across his last five fights, with the lone victory being that vicious knockout against Bryce Mitchell back in December 2023.
I agree with the betting market, as I expect to see budding star Vallejos dominate Josh Emmett on Saturday night. The big question is: How will Vallejos notch the win? He's a knockout artist, sporting 12 professional knockouts throughout his 17-1-0 career. However, Emmett has a chin of granite, and he has only been put to sleep once in his 19-6-0 pro career (Jeremy Stephens, 2018).
I'm going to give the crafty veteran the benefit of the doubt here. I think he'll last the 25 minutes and lose via points. One metric that stands out is that Emmett boasts a 60% strike defense rate, meaning only 40% of his opponents' strikes have landed. We could also see Emmett return to his wrestling background to mix things up as well. He'll need to throw the kitchen sink at Vallejos to even have a chance, but considering his elite chin and experience, Emmett survives the full five rounds and loses by decision.
Bet: Kevin Vallejos to Win by Decision (+175)
Amanda Lemos (+170) vs. Gillian Robertson (-205)
This top-10 brawl in the Women's Strawweight Division should be a fun one, featuring a clash of fighting styles. Despite having the higher ranking, Amanda Lemos (No. 5) finds herself as a sizable +170 Moneyline underdog. Gillian Robertson (No. 8) is currently -205 to record her fifth straight victory.
I'm going to take a shot and back Lemos on the Moneyline. Her strengths appear to match up well against what will likely be Robertson's game plan. At this point, we know Robertson wants to spam takedowns to lean on her submission skills to tap her opponent. That's really all she has in her arsenal, as the Canadian-born fighter isn't very threatening on her feet.
Lemos boasts a solid 64% takedown defense rate, and she has held up well against some of the toughest women in the world. I'm going to gamble and say that Lemos can keep this fight upright. That's where she'll have a massive edge in this one. I also think it favors the Brazilian that this is a quick three-round sprint, so she won't have to fend off Robertson for a full 25 minutes. Lemos is live to win this fight. Let's take a flier on her to do so.
Bet: Amanda Lemos Moneyline (+170)
Andre Fili (+300) vs. Jose Delgado (-380)
This card is littered with betting mismatches, and that includes this main card opener between Andre Fili and Jose Delgado. Delgado, who's coming off a decision loss to Nathaniel Wood in October 2025, is a huge -380 Moneyline favorite against veteran Andre Fili (+300).
Delgado will likely secure the victory, but I won't be surprised if Fili makes it interesting. The reason Delgado took the loss last time out was due to his lack of takedown defense. He went just 1-for-3 defending takedowns, and it was ultimately the timely wrestling that went against Delgado in the decision loss. He has been taken down two or more times in half of his four UFC bouts, and the Mexican-born brawler owns a mediocre 60% defense rate.
Meanwhile, Fili has entered the "crafty veteran" stage of his career. He was never able to make a run up the rankings, but he is still a solid, well-rounded competitor with the promotion. Fili has at least one takedown in three straight fights, and he's averaging a solid 2.22 takedowns per 15 minutes. His success rate is 45%. If Fili wants to pull off an upset, it's unlikely he'll stand toe-to-toe with the dangerous Delgado. He's going to have to mix in some wrestling, and this is an ideal candidate for him to land a takedown against.
Bet: Andre Fili Over 0.5 Takedowns Landed (-135)