UFC Fight Night Fiziev vs. Gamrot: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

by Andrew Mintner |
Sep 22, 2023

Well, that was a brutal card. We ended up taking that on the chin. There is no need to dwell on the amount of favorites who won handily. We have an extremely underrated card this weekend, numerous high-profile styles and fights. There are incredibly intriguing matchups that have possible championship implications. Let’s dive into our top picks for UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot.

UFC Fight Night Fiziev vs Gamrot: Odds, Picks & Predictions

Record

ML: 40-30-2 (+11.85 units)
Props: 12-27-1 (+1.05 units)
Parlays 3-22 (-2.37 units)
Overall +10.53 units

MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success.

We will examine numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets, but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport. Let's look at the statistics to help us make our best bets.

Glossary

Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)

The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's look at this compelling matchup!

Mohammed Usman (-135) vs. Jake Collier (+114)

Mohammed Usman

Dist Acc Off: 19.2%
Dist Att/Min: 6.69
Dist Def: 52%
KD%: 9.09% (2 KDs out of 11 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 40.2%
Control % Def: 0%

Jake Collier

Dist Acc Off: 42.8%
Dist Att/Min: 17.59
Dist Def: 48%
KD%: .5% (1 KD out of 198 distances strikes)
Control % Off: 26.8%
Control % Def: 12.1%

Usman has an extremely small sample size in the UFC. We cannot expect some of his advanced statistics to hold. His 9 KD% will definitely come back down to earth. Usman does fight at a plodder-style pace on his feet and his obvious strength is his wrestling. Collier fights at an infinitely faster pace and has vastly more experience. I can see Collier weathering the storm and really putting it on Usman in the later rounds.

Bet: Jake Collier (+114) and Collier to win by finish (+225)

Bryan Battle (-185) vs. AJ Fletcher (+154)

Bryan Battle

Dist Acc Off: 53.7%
Dist Att/Min: 17.64
Dist Def: 48%
KD%: 1.72% (2 KDs out of 116 distance strikes)
Control % Off: .1%
Control % Def: 47.7%

AJ Fletcher

Dist Acc Off: 48.1%
Dist Att/Min: 14.88
Dist Def: 54%
KD%: .8% (1 KD out of 118 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 26.1%
Control % Def: 31.6%

This looks to be an action-packed fight from start to finish. Battle is slightly more accurate with more power, but his defense is abysmal. Battle’s control defense is horrendous and a reason for concern. Fletcher is a more well-rounded MMA fighter and has an above-average control % offense that gives him another path to victory.

Bet: AJ Fletcher (+154)

Charles Jourdain (-142) vs. Ricardo Ramos (+120)

Charles Jourdain

Dist Acc Off: 42.9%
Dist Att/Min: 15.01
Dist Def: 57%
KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 232 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 19.6%
Control % Def: 20.3%

Ricardo Ramos

Dist Acc Off: 34.1%
Dist Att/Min: 12.54
Dist Def: 58%
KD%: .7% (1 KD out of 132 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 13.9%
Control % Def: 7.6%

Both of these fighters are pretty similar all the way across the board. Jourdain does fight at a higher pace with better accuracy. Ramos leaves a lot to be desired with his 34.1% distance accuracy. I do not see any path to victory that he has an advantage in.

Bet: Charles Jourdain (-142)

Dan Argueta (-185) vs. Miles Johns (+154)

Dan Argueta

Dist Acc Off: 44.3%
Dist Att/Min: 18.09
Dist Def: 61%
KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 43 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 43.2%
Control % Def: 38.8%

Miles Johns

Dist Acc Off: 46.7%
Dist Att/Min: 8.87
Dist Def: 75%
KD%: .9% (2 KDs out of 208 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 9.1%
Control % Def: 3.5%

This fight is pretty straightforward, if Argueta gets this fight to the ground it will be over. Johns is an interesting fighter, he fights at a languid pace but he is almost untouchable at a distance. Johns would have to land the cleaner punches with less activity, while not being controlled on the ground. That is too many variables for me.

Bet: Dan Argueta (-185)

Bryce Mitchell (-205) vs. Dan Ige (+170)

Bryce Mitchell

Dist Acc Off: 31.8%
Dist Att/Min: 8.68
Dist Def: 65%
KD%: 1.4% (1 KD out of 71 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 48.7%
Control % Def: 17.7%

Dan Ige

Dist Acc Off: 42.4%
Dist Att/Min: 11.19
Dist Def: 65%
KD%: .9% (2 KDs out of 212 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 2.7%
Control % Def: 14.7%

This is arguably a make-or-break fight for Bryce Mitchell. His last fight against Ilia Topuria was eye-opening. He couldn’t get the fight to the ground and was molly-whopped at a distance. Both fighters have fantastic distance defense. Ige is viewed as somewhat of a gatekeeper but he is not the prototypical older fighter that prospects are just running through. Firstly, he is not that old, he is only 32 years old. Secondly, in this matchup, he is vastly better at a distance than Bryce Mitchell. I feel that Ige is going to have learned from his fight against Movsar Evloev and be able to defend takedowns better.

Bet: Dan Ige (+170) and Ige by KO/TKO +400

Rafael Fiziev (-155) vs. Mateusz Gamrot (+130)

Rafael Fiziev

Dist Acc Off: 49.8%
Dist Att/Min: 11.57
Dist Def: 49%
KD%: .7% (3 KDs out of 390 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 9.4%
Control % Def: 10.6%

Mateusz Gamrot

Dist Acc Off: 47.6%
Dist Att/Min: 7.11
Dist Def: 63%
KD%: .4% (1 KD out of 213 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 21.5%
Control % Def: 3.2%

This is an extremely underrated main event and has the potential to be a fight-of-the-year candidate. One thing that stands out to me, that I would not have guessed is that Fiziev has a shockingly horrendous distance defense. Now he has fought some monsters in the lightweight division, but 49% distance defense is terrifying against a quality fighter like Gamrot. Gamrot fights at a meticulous pace and is extremely technical. Gamrot has a control % offense that can be fight-changing in this matchup. If this round makes it into the 4th and 5th rounds, I see Gamrot grinding away a victory against Fiziev.

Bet: Mateusz Gamrot (+130) and Gamrot by submission (+700)

The Bets

ML Parlay

Dan Argueta (-185)
Mateusz Gamrot (+130)

Parlay Odds: +254 for 1.5 units

Lottery Ticket Parlay

Dan Argueta (-185)
Mateusz Gamrot (+130)
Jake Collier (+114)
AJ Fletcher (+154)
Dan Ige (+170)

Parlay Odds: +5100 for .5 unit

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

Navigate

UFC Fight Night Fiziev vs. Gamrot: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)