UFC Fight Night Holm vs Silva: Odds, Picks & Predictions (Vegas 77)
What an incredible UFC 290 card and overall slate for us! We correctly picked two underdogs at longer odds on the card and one of them by method of victory. Our only loss on the card was Robert Whittaker, as Dricus Du Plessis shocked the world with a complete masterclass performance.
We have a Fight Night card that, on paper, looks to be underwhelming, but those are usually the type of cards that outperform the odds. Let’s dive in!
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UFC Fight Night Holm vs. Silva: Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Record:
- ML: 18-11-1 (+7.15 units)
- Props: 5-10-1 (-0.60 units)
- Parlays 1-10 (-3.09 units)
- Overall +3.46 units
MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success.
We will examine numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets, but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport. Let’s look at the statistics to help us make our best bets.
Glossary
- Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
- Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
- Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
- Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
- Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
- KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
- Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
- Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
- Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)
The main key to this analysis is looking at each fighter’s last three fights. This indicates a fighter’s form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let’s dive into some of our best bets for this upcoming UFC card.
Norma Dumont (-135) vs. Chelsea Chandler (+115)
Norma Dumont
- Dist Acc Off: 39.04%
- Dist Att/Min: 9.39
- Dist Def: 74%
- KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 139 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 19.71%
- Control % Def: 26.1%
Chelsea Chandler doesn’t have enough fights to build an advanced statistic profile. What stands out most to me is Norma Dumont has exceptional distance defense. The average UFC distance defense is 63%. One thing that is concerning is her Control % Def of 26.1%. Chandler fights out of Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu (Nick and Nate Diaz Team) and is a brown belt in BJJ. Chandler is on a five-fight-winning streak dating back to her Invicta days. In her UFC debut, she averaged a blistering 23.24 Att/Min. I believe Chandler will overwhelm Dumont and have the advantage on the ground if the fight goes there.
Bets: Chelsea Chandler (+115) & by finish (+275)
Nazim Sadykhov (-155) vs. Terrance McKinney (+135)
Nazim Sadykhov
- Dist Acc Off: 47.05%
- Dist Att/Min: 13.51
- Dist Def: 60%
- KD%: 1.2% (1 KD out of 80 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 18.2%
- Control % Def: 25.4%
Terrance McKinney
- Dist Acc Off: 37.6%
- Dist Att/Min: 16.01
- Dist Def: 48%
- KD%: 2.4% (1 KD out of 41 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 36.4%
- Control % Def: 9.2%
The first thing I noticed when looking at this fight is Terrance McKinney has horrendous distance defense. A distance defense percentage under 50 is extremely concerning. He does have the advantage in pace and overall control positions. If this fight stays on its feet, Nazim Sadykhov will have the potential to end it. I lean toward Sadykhov in what should be a polarizing fight.
Bets: Nazim Sadykhov (-155) & Nazim by KO/TKO (+130)
Jack Della Maddalena (-550) vs. Bassil Hafez (+400)
Jack Della Maddalena
- Dist Acc Off: 47.4%
- Dist Att/Min: 18.26
- Dist Def: 72%
- KD%: 6.02% (5 KDs out of 83 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 7.9%
- Control % Def: 5.9%
Bassil Hafez does not have enough fights to build an advanced statistic profile. Jack Della Maddalena, on the other hand, has been an incredible prospect since the moment he stepped into the UFC. His insane distance defense rate, paired with a premier KD%, is something you do not see every day. This is pretty straightforward; I see Maddalena ending this early.
Bet: Jack Della Maddalena First Round KO/TKO (-120)
Holly Holm (-180) vs. Mayra Bueno Silva (+155)
Holly Holm
- Dist Acc Off: 52.5%
- Dist Att/Min: 11.80
- Dist Def: 61%
- KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 230 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 38.6%
- Control % Def: 4.2%
Mayra Bueno Silva
- Dist Acc Off: 55.8%
- Dist Att/Min: 11.23
- Dist Def: 71%
- KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 105 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 22.9%
- Control % Def: 12.8%
Holly Holm has really adapted her style over her last several fights. She has become more of a clinch/control fighter. Both fighters have premier distance defense and are lacking the power to finish the fight. I am going to lean on Holm’s advantage in Control % Off as that gives her an additional path to victory. I also believe Holm will lean on her experience of five-round fights to wear down Mayra Bueno Silva.
Bet: Holly Holm (-180)
The Bets
ML Parlay
Parlay Odds: +294 1u
Props Parlay
Parlay Odds: +762 .5u
Lottery Ticket Parlay
- Jack Della Maddalena First round KO/TKO (-120)
- Chelsea Chandler (+115)
- Nazim Sadykhov (-155)
- Holly Holm (-180)
Parlay Odds: +908 .5u
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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or if you have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!