UFC Fight Night: Islam Makhachev vs. Bobby Green Parlay (2022)
Islam Makhachev is the lightweight no one wants a piece of and will enter the octagon Saturday against yet another last-minute fill-in, this time Bobby Green. Following an ankle injury suffered by his original opponent Beneil Dariush, the entire top 10 said no to facing Makhachev on short notice, and instead, Green will be stepping in on just 10 days’ notice.
Let’s take a closer look at the Green/Makhachev fight and one other I’m including in this week’s juicy UFC parlay.
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Leg #1. Islam Makhachev (-900 at DK Sportsbook)
There’s no such thing as a lock in this game of fighting, but as the odds would suggest, it doesn’t get much more of a sure thing than this. Coming into Saturday on a 9-fight win streak, Makhachev does nothing spectacular other than smother, dominate fighters on the ground, and just win. His past three have also come via submission, as his Sambo-style of fight mimics that of his cousin, one of the all-time greats Khabib Nurmagomedov.
Having just fought on February 12th (decision win), Green would be a massive underdog here with a full fight camp, let alone less than two weeks to prepare. More of a striker, expect Green to be overwhelmed by Islam’s 3.37 takedowns and 1.26 submission averages per 15 minutes, and for this one to end rather quickly.
Leg #2. Arman Tsarukyan (-220 at DK Sportsbook)
With nearly 8″ of height and 5″ of reach advantage, a surface-level look would make this lightweight battle seem like somewhat of a mismatch in favor of Joel Alvarez. However, a deeper look shows why Tsarukyan has moved from a -175 favorite at open to where he sits now.
Both grappling specialists who are on the rise in a crowded lightweight division, Tsarukyan’s only loss has come to Makhachev as he comes into this fight on a four-fight win streak and a sizeable metric edge. Granted, all four of Alvarez’s wins inside the UFC have finished inside two rounds, Tsarukyan holds the edge in takedown averages per 15 minutes (3.38 vs. 0), as well as takedown accuracy 34.15% (vs. 0).
He’s also shown a propensity to stand and strike as needed, TKO’ing Christos Giagos in the first round his last time inside the octagon (September), earning himself a Performance of the Night bonus. Against the taller and lankier Alvarez, Tsarukyan holds his own in striking as well, with 3.59 significant strikes landed per minute (vs. 3.99) and a significant striking accuracy of 59.04% (vs. 54.27%).
Currently the #13 contender in the lightweight division, I like a statement win from Tsarukyan on Saturday to propel him into the top 10 and on a crash course for a top 10 showdown next time out.
Total Odds: -164 at DraftKings Sportsbook
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