UFC Fight Night: Jack Hermansson vs. Kelvin Gastelum Betting Guide (2020)
The coronavirus pandemic has done little to stop the UFC, as the company has been operating events since early May. They started in Jacksonville, went to Las Vegas, and now they’ve put together Fight Island. Located off the coast of Abu Dhabi, Yas Island has now played host to two successful UFC events in the past seven days.
The third event, UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 (also known as UFC Fight Night 172 and UFC on ESPN+ 30), is one of the best cards the Island has seen. As of this writing, it has yet to lose any main card fighters to positive COVID-19 test results like the previous two.
Before the main event between Deiveson Figueiredo and Joseph Benavidez gets kicked off on Saturday night, two middleweights in Jack Hermansson and Kevin Gastelum offer a great lead-in. Let’s take a closer look at tomorrow’s co-main event and see where we can spot the edge.
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Jack Hermansson (20-5-0) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (16-5-0)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Before the main event gets started Saturday night, two middleweights who are battling up the rankings will face off in what should be an evenly matched affair.
Currently ranked as the sixth-ranked contender in the division, Hermansson (Sweden) comes into this one the larger fighter standing at 6’1″ and with an arm reach of 77.5″. In his last time in the octagon, he was knocked out for the first time in his career. The loss came at the hands of Jared Cannonier, and it’s something to be mindful of in this one.
He takes on American Kelvin Gastelum, who is currently the seventh-ranked contender in the middleweight division. A long-time veteran of the company, Gastelum has been with the UFC since 2013. He clawed his way from the bottom all the way to a title fight against Israel Adesanya in 2019. After losing that fight by decision (unanimous), he lost again in a split decision versus Darren Till in November.
Looking at the fight metrics, Hermansson lands more strikes per minute (5.1 vs. 3.8), and he averages a much higher number of takedowns per fight (2.2 vs. 0.8) than Gastelum. Those are two areas to keep an eye on in this one.
While Hermansson enters with a clear advantage on paper, both in metrics and size, I still lean Gastelum. He is much better than his two-fight losing streak would imply. I expect early hesitation from Hermansson after his recent knock out to cost him in the end.
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TJ Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from TJ, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.