UFC Fight Night Lewis vs. Spivac: Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)
UFC Apex will once again be host to a UFC Vegas card. The main card features two heavyweight matchups and a light heavyweight bout, so fireworks are sure to fly Saturday. There are only two fights between ranked fighters throughout the card, but a few rising prospects will enter the cage to try and make a name for themselves. The prelims will start at 1 p.m. EST, and the main card begins at 4 p.m. EST, which is a little earlier than usual.
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Leg 1: Jack Della Maddalena money line (-645)
The first leg of the parlay features a massive favorite in the welterweight division. Jack Della Maddalena is fighting for the third time this year against Danny Roberts. Roberts has been in the UFC since 2015 but has not proven himself against the upper echelon of the competition. He does not typically wrestle but has secured a takedown in two of his last three fights. Maddalena does not typically wrestle, so this fight should take place standing. Maddalena lands 8.24 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 4.68 strikes. Roberts only lands 3.13 strikes per minute while absorbing 3.32 strikes with 41% accuracy. Maddalena is tough and only getting better at 26, and Roberts is on the way out at 35. A loss could mean the end of Roberts’ UFC career and act as a stepping stone for Maddalena’s budding one.
Leg 2: Waldo Cortes-Acosta money line (-245)
Waldo Cortes-Acosta recently fought on October 29th and won via unanimous decision over Jared Vanderaa. He did not get the knockout as he had hoped, but octagon experience is crucial early in a fighter’s career. His opponent, Chase Sherman, also beat Vanderaa in his July fight but lost four straight before that fight. The UFC is always looking for talent to fill out their heavyweight roster, so more losses are allowed to them, generally. These men are similar in height, weight, and reach, but Cortes-Acosta is the better athlete. He is also a cleaner striker, having been a professional boxer before competing in MMA. Cortes-Acosta lands 6.21 strikes per minute and absorbs 3.80 strikes. Sherman’s numbers are identical at 6.51 strikes landed and absorbed per minute, which is not a winning formula versus Cortes-Acosta. Sherman is usually a tough competitor and someone hard to knock out, but he lacks a clear path to victory in this fight.
Leg 3: Derrick Lewis vs. Serghei Spivac does not go to decision (-750)
This leg is undoubtedly the most likely outcome of this fight card because these men live and die by their power. Derrick Lewis is the knockout king of the UFC, at least by numbers. He has 13 victories via KO inside the UFC, which proves his power and consistency. In the UFC, he has had only two fights go to a decision: one with Roy Nelson and a staring contest with Francis Ngannou.
Serghei Spivac has had three fights go the distance, and two involved a decent amount of wrestling. The other was against Aleksei Oleinik, who is not someone to fool with on the ground and is difficult to put away on the feet. Spivac likes to wrestle and averages 4.09 takedowns per 15 minutes. Derrick Lewis, however, is one of the hardest men to keep on the mat. He does not use the correct technique when getting up but proceeds to stand up regardless of who is on top of him. He has the strength that few people on the planet possess. His lack of technique also helps our cause if Spivac can catch him in a vulnerable position while trying to stand. Do not blink when these two men enter the octagon because it could be over in an instant.
Parlay: -119 on DraftKings Sportsbook
DraftKings is the best place to play this parlay, and betting enough to win one unit is the best way to attack it. The main event starts at 4 p.m. EDT on ESPN+.
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