Navigate

UFC Fight Night: Longshot Bets, Odds, Picks & Predictions

by |

UFC on ABC 5 gets underway this Saturday at the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida. While this card is certainly not the most loaded of affairs, there are still a couple of great betting angles to attack.

Below, I will walk through my best longshot prop bet to make for this event. This play is 0.45 units, or 0.45% of your betting bankroll.

Follow me on Twitter to get all my plays on days without full write-ups.

UFC on ABC 5: Best Longshot Bet

(Odds courtesy of BetRivers)

Brendan Allen vs. Bruno Silva

We have a middleweight kicking off the main card with the No. 13-ranked contender Brendan Allen taking on Bruno Silva. Allen enters this bout in tremendous form and has, quite frankly, been one of the more under-talked-about middleweights over the past couple of years.

Since joining the UFC, Allen is 10-2 with his two losses coming against the current No. 7-ranked Sean Strickland and No. 15 Chris Curtis. A black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, he has built up a reputation as being one of the more dangerous grapplers in the 185-pound division, securing six submission wins over those 10 UFC victories.

Half of those submission victories came in the first round, which is a product of Allen’s fast-paced style. At +510, it is worth taking a shot on Allen to pull that exact finish off once again.

I am expecting Allen to shoot for takedowns early and often, especially considering the power and chin Silva possesses. Through 31 professional fights, Silva boasts 20 knockout victories while having never been on the receiving end of a knockout.

He has, however, been submitted in six of his eight losses. Will Silva be able to be able to stuff Allen’s takedown attempts? Maybe, but the more relentless Allen is, the sooner Silva and his 71% takedown defense will be taken down like he was in his latest loss to Gerald Meerschaert, which ended via submission.

Pick: Brendan Allen via Round 1 Submission (+510)

Best of luck!


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.