UFC Fight Night: Mackenzie Dern vs. Marina Rodriguez Betting Guide (2021)
A pair of top 10 women strawweights will look to take a step up the ranks on Saturday afternoon as Mackenzie Dern is set to face off against Marina Rodriguez in Saturday’s main event in Las Vegas, NV. While the box main heavyweight event will get much of the headlines, this should be a great fight between two fighters known to press the action.
Let’s take a closer look.
| Mackenzie Dern | -159 | -150 | -155 | -156 |
| Marina Rodriguez | +132 | +130 | +132 | +131 |
Betting Profile: Mackenzie Dern (11-1-0)
Last Five Fights
| W | W | W | W | L |
It’ll have been almost two years to the day since Dern suffered her last defeat, as she now rattled off four straight victories with three being the first round via (armbar) submission. The last time we saw her in the octagon was another quick performance, taking out Nina Nunes in a fight she won a Performance of the Night bonus for.
A quick look at the metrics tell the story one would expect, as Dern averages 2.3 submissions per 15 minutes to go along with .51 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Betting Profile: Marina Rodriguez (14-1-2)
Last Five Fights
| W | W | L | D | W |
While Dern has a submission game second to none, Rodriguez is one of the best strikers in the division. Of her 14 professional wins six have come via KO, most recently a 2nd round TKO of Amanda Ribas at UFC 257.
Following the numbers, you see the same pattern, as Rodriguez comes into this fight landing 4.98 strikes per minute, 48% of which are significant. Her ground game is certainly a cause for concern, as she averages just .28 takedowns per 15 minutes and has zero submission victories since joining the UFC, and just one in her career.
Bottom Line?
This is a classic conflicting style main event in the UFC, and the usual question remains; who is better at forcing their own agenda. In this one, I like Dern to be the aggressor and come out of the gates going for the takedown without hesitation.
Over the course of Rodriguez’s career, she’s done little to show she can handle that kind of pace on the ground, and I expect that to continue Saturday.
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Johnny Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Johnny, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.