UFC Fight Night: Marvin Vettori vs. Kevin Holland Betting Guide
With fights back in front of packed arenas just over the horizon, the days of fighting in a near-empty gym in Las Vegas, NV, are soon behind the UFC. While we’re not quite there yet, this Saturday afternoon card still offers a ton of betting value.
Darren Till was originally supposed to be fighting Marvin Vettori as the main event for this one but had to withdraw just over a week ago due to a broken collar bone. In his place steps Kevin Holland, who will be tying the UFC record for the shortest turnaround between two main events (last fought March 20th).
With both fighters having to recalibrate with just over a week to prepare for fight night, let’s take a look at where the value remains.
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Betting Profile: Marvin Vettori (16-4-1)
Last Five Fights
| W | W | W | W | L |
Coming into this fight as the #6 ranked challenger to the middleweight belt, Vettori is surely on a mission to get another shot at the champ Israel Adesanya. The last time we saw him lose, just his second loss in the UFC and fourth professionally, was to Adesanya via a split decision nearly two years ago to the date.
Vettri has been on a mission since, winning four straight while landing a staggering 4.78 Strikes Landed per Min. (SLpM). His issue has been the power, as Vettori has no fights that have ended via TKO/KO with the UFC and only two that have not gone the distance.
Betting Profile: Kevin Holland (21-6-0)
Last Five Fights
| L | W | W | W | W |
For Holland taking this fight on just 9 days’ notice, it likely feels like his last camp never ended in many ways. Before his March 20th defeat to Derek Brunson, a five-round affair that he lost by unanimous decision, Holland had ended 4 of his previous 5 by TKO/KO.
In fact, his 56% striking accuracy ranks near the top of the division, which he’ll likely be looking to take advantage of in this one. His just 51% takedown defense is certainly of concern and weakness that Vettori will be smart to take advantage of.
Outright Bet
It’s hard to look at this fight and find a route that Holland can take to victory with all of the aforementioned factors at play. Additionally, Vettori’s camp likely doesn’t accept this fight unless they had a precise game plan for Holland’s fighting style.
If Vettori can escape any big blows early, he should cruise to victory in this one.
Top Prop Bet
Ultimately, Vettori will want to get this one to the ground in a hurry, knowing Holland possesses the ability to put the lights out quickly. A Brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, I like Vettori to enforce a ground a pound early and catch the likely fatigued Holland in submission before it’s all said and done.
Pick: Marvin Vettori by Submission +210
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TJ Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from TJ, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.