UFC Fight Night: Michael Chiesa vs. Neil Magny Betting Guide
The first UFC Fight Night of 2021 has come and gone as Max Holloway defeated Calvin Kattar on Saturday at Fight Island in Abu Dhabi. For the first time since UFC 248 in March 2020, fans were allowed in attendance as around 2,000 fans will attend each of the three Fight Island events on this most recent run.
Before the main card of the week gets underway later this weekend, the UFC comes right back with some mid-week. mid-day action with prelims starting at 9 a.m. EST.
Let’s take a closer look at the tale of the tape between two welterweights looking for the biggest wins of their careers.
| Michael Chiesa | +116 | +120 | +120 | +120 |
| Neil Magny | -136 | -148 | -143 | -138 |
Get a risk-free bet up to $500 at FanDuel Sportsbook >>
Betting Profile: Michael Chiesa (17-4-0)
Last Five Fights
| W | W | W | L | L |
The higher-ranked (#8) Michael “Maverick†Chiesa comes into this one the superior grappler, as three of his last five wins have been finished on the ground. Posting a trailing average of 3.84 takedowns per 15 minutes in the octagon, Chiesa’s game plan should be clear in this one.
Landing just 2.07 strikes landed per minute (SLpM), one of the lowest averages in the division, Chiesa tends to lean on his ground game almost to a fault. Fighting in the lightweight division for most of his career, his natural size has allowed him to lean on opponents and be a nightmare for them once the fight goes to the mat.
Betting Profile: Neil Magny (24-8-0)
Last Five Fights
| W | W | W | L | W |
For Neil “The Haitian Sensation†Magny, an average wrestler comparatively, a slugfest would be a more advantageous route. Averaging 3.96 SLpm, Magny has multiple Performance of the Night bonuses in his bag thanks to his heavy hands.
Coming into this one with a 5″ reach advantage over his opponent and the naturally bigger fighter, I expect Magny to elect to stand and throw where possible.
Outright Bet
Both of these fighters know their way around the UFC octagon and have fought some of the very best in the business over their careers. Looking at common opponents, Rafael dos Anjos submitted Magny in the first round, while Chiesa took him the distance and won a unanimous decision nearly a year ago.
While that’s not a sure-fire path to predicting a winner, I also like the fact that in the events Chiesa has lost, he’s slipped early got caught, never losing in fights that have gone the distance. That’s where I see this one headed, so Chiesa gets the nod in what should be a very entertaining fight.
Top Prop Bet
One thing that really stands out to me for both of these fighters is their cardio and endurance every time they’re inside the octagon. In their last six combined fights, all of which were wins, five went the distance which is exactly where I see this one going.
Pick: How Fight Will End? – Points (-150)
Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
TJ Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from TJ, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.