UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan Picks & Predictions (2026)
UFC 327 is right around the corner, but the first order of business is an event at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. Renato Moicano is putting his top-10 ranking on the line against unranked Chris Duncan in the main event. No. 7-ranked Tabatha Ricci is trying to break into the top five against No. 3-ranked Virna Jandiroba in the co-main event. The event starts at 5 p.m. Eastern, while the main card begins at 8 p.m.
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UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan Picks & Bets (2026)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Dione Barbosa (-130) vs. Melissa Gatto (+110)
Dione Barbosa is four fights into her UFC career and is 2-2 after winning via submission on Dana White's Contender Series. She is fighting Melissa Gatto, who is 3-2 in the UFC. She has fought five times since 2021, and her last fight was in 2024. Gatto's inactivity is concerning, and this is not a great matchup for her.
Barbosa is a strong wrestler and looks for finishes on the ground with her jiu-jitsu. She landed three takedowns in a fight with Karine Silva, which she took on short notice. Gatto's last true test was against Ariane da Silva in 2023, and she lost via split-decision. She lost to Tracy Cortez in 2022.
Barbosa is much more active and has had a lot of octagon time in the past two years. She's fought three times since Gatto last fought, and four times since 2024. Barbosa is slick on the ground and can win the fight with control on the mat. Gatto has to get back to her feet quickly, which is tough to do against Barbosa. Barbosa is trending up, while Gatto is getting back into the octagon for the first time since 2024. I like Barbosa controlling this fight on the mat to win on the scorecards.
Pick: Dione Barbosa (-130)
Renato Moicano (+150) vs. Chris Duncan (–180)
Chris Duncan is the favorite in this fight, despite being outside of the rankings. Renato Moicano has lost his last two fights to Beneil Dariush and Islam Makhachev. The way he lost to Dariush is likely why he's an underdog. Dariush took Moicano down five times, and Duncan is a skilled wrestler.
Duncan averages 3.27 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and lands with 42% accuracy. He also averages 0.7 submissions attempted per 15 minutes. Moicano has only lost two fights via submission, via d'arce choke to Makhachev in 2025, and via guillotine choke to Brian Ortega in 2017. There is little shame in either of those losses, and it is hard to envision Duncan submitting to him.
Moicano is a solid, patient striker, but he wants to use his striking to set up his takedowns. Moicano's bread-and-butter is his jiu-jitsu, but getting Duncan to the mat is not easy. Duncan is also worrisome for Moicano on the feet, because he is aggressive and chaotic. Moicano must deal with his flurries and cannot end up on his back, because Duncan has strong control and vicious ground-and-pound. Duncan has too much firepower and matches up well with Moicano. I think he wins this matchup via knockout.
Bet: Chris Duncan to Win by Knockout (+110)