UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan Picks & Predictions (2026)
The UFC is back in the Meta APEX in Las Vegas for UFC Vegas 123. The main event is a ranked lightweight matchup between Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan. The only other ranked matchup on the card is a main card fight between No. 6 Yana Santos and No. 7 Luana Santos in the women's bantamweight division. I have a pick for that main event bout, along with another pick on the main card. The prelims start at 5 p.m. EDT, and the main card starts at 8 p.m. EDT, all on Paramount+.
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UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan Picks & Bets (2026)
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Ode' Osbourne (-102) vs. Cody Durden (-118)
Ode' Osbourne is taking on Cody Durden in a flyweight bout between a couple of UFC veterans. It is the third fight on the main card, and both men have had a tough go recently.
Osbourne is 5-7 (1 NC) in the UFC and 13-9 as a professional. His latest fight was a unanimous decision loss to Alibi Idiris, but it was overturned due to Idiris testing positive for hydrochlorothiazide. After removing that fight, Osbourne is still 1-4 in his last five fights. He lost to Steve Erceg via unanimous decision in August 2025, and his last win was a knockout victory over Luis Gurule in April 2025.
Durden is 7-9-1 in the UFC and 18-11-1 as a professional. He is also 1-4 in his last five fights and has lost seven of his last nine fights. He was recently submitted by Alessandro Costa in July after Osbourne pulled out due to injury. His latest victory was a unanimous decision win over Jafel Filho in April.
These men have prepared for each other twice now after the first scheduled bout was canceled in July. Osbourne has likely worked on his wrestling, but I do not think he can stay off his back in this matchup. Durden averages 3.82 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Osbourne defends 66% of opponents' takedowns, and it has been his downfall in recent bouts.
In the fight that was overturned, Idiris took him down five times, while Erceg took him down three times before that. Durden's wrestling is his strength, and he can hold his own in striking. Osbourne has power for the division, but is not defensively sound. He lands 2.94 significant strikes and absorbs 3.24 significant strikes per minute. He has a six-inch reach advantage, but it will not help him on the mat.
I expect Durden to control where the fight takes place and control Osbourne on the mat en route to a decision victory.
Bet: Cody Durden Moneyline (-118)
Renato Moicano (-130) vs. Tom Nolan (+110)
The main event is a great matchup in the lightweight division between a longtime UFC veteran and a Dana White's Contender Series alum. Renato Moicano has fought the best of the best in the division since entering the UFC in 2014. Tom Nolan carries a five-fight winning streak after losing his UFC debut in 2024.
Moicano is 21-7-1 as a professional and 13-7 in the UFC. He is coming off a submission victory against Chris Duncan in April. Before that, he lost to Beneil Dariush via unanimous decision and to Islam Makhachev in a title fight in 2025. Moicano took the fight on short notice and was submitted in the first round by the current welterweight champion.
Nolan has rattled off five straight victories after getting knocked out by Nikolas Motta in his UFC debut in 2024. He most recently beat Fares Ziam via unanimous decision in June. He is 11-1 as a professional and 5-1 in the UFC.
Nolan has a four-inch height advantage, standing at 6 feet 3 inches. He only holds a one-inch reach advantage, though. He is taking a step up in competition against Moicano, and I am not sure he is ready for it.
Moicano has solid striking, but does great work on the mat. He has seven submissions in the UFC and two knockouts. Nine of his 13 wins have come via finish. Nolan has to keep this fight on the feet, and if he finds himself on the mat, he has to have top control. Moicano is too good of a grappler to give him opportunities to hunt submissions.
Moicano can also compete on the feet. He does a good job of not getting hit hard. He lands 4.10 significant strikes and absorbs 3.55 significant strikes per minute. Moicano defends 59% of opponents' significant strikes. Moicano's advantage on the mat is too big to ignore, especially after Nolan was put in bad situations by Ziam recently. Moicano should win this fight and look for a bigger matchup next.
Bet: Renato Moicano Moneyline (-130)