UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh Picks & Predictions (2026)
The UFC is on the road this week after spending last week in Houston. They return to Mexico City, and the same person is headlining on home soil for the third consecutive year. Brandon Moreno fought Brandon Royval in 2024 and Steve Erceg last year. Moreno is facing Lone'er Kavanagh on Saturday as he looks to get back in the win column. This week’s UFC Fight Night prelims begin at 5:00 p.m. EST, and the main card starts at 8:00 p.m. EST on Paramount+.
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UFC Fight Night Moreno vs. Kavanagh Picks & Bets (2026)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Ailin Perez (-170) vs. Macy Chiasson (+142)
Cardio and adjusting to the elevation are of the utmost importance this week. Macy Chiasson is one of the most conditioned fighters in the women's Bantamweight Division. Chiasson has lost her last two fights, both in 2025. They were against two tough fighters in Yana Santos and Ketlen Vieira.
Ailin Perez is on a five-fight winning streak, but this is a jump in competition. Perez is a wrestler who averages 4.68 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Chiasson defends 72% of takedowns and is a wrestler, too. She lands 2.07 takedowns per 15 minutes. Chiasson also owns a six-inch reach advantage and is a technical striker at range.
Chiasson has been in Mexico City for two weeks, acclimating to the elevation. She also said she is running more than 30 miles per week to get in peak shape for this fight. Perez may struggle against Chiasson's gas tank closer to sea level, and it gets difficult for her at 7,000 feet. I like Chiasson to keep this fight standing and use sweeps to gain advantageous positions on the mat.
Bet: Macy Chiasson Moneyline (+142)
Edgar Chairez (-325) vs. Felipe Bunes (+260)
Edgar Chairez is a big favorite against Felipe Bunes as the third fight on the main card. Chairez is 2-2 (one no contest) in the UFC, but his two losses are to Tatsuro Taira, who is ranked third in the Flyweight Division, and Joshua Van, who holds the belt. He has wins over CJ Vergara, his lone fight in 2025, and Daniel Lacerda.
Felipe Bunes is 1-2 in the UFC and was thrown to the wolves in his debut. He lost to a 22-year-old Van via knockout, right before Van's last loss. Bunes came back and beat Jose Johnson via submission, and lost to Rafael Estevam in August. Bunes has nine submission wins in his career, but is 14-8 overall.
Chairez has a really good ground game and almost submitted Taira in 2023. He has also won by submission in both of his UFC victories. Chairez is cleaner on the feet, where this fight likely stays, as their ground games negate each other. He also has extensive experience against the division's top fighters. I like Chairez to dominate the one-dimensional Bunes on the feet in this matchup. He is aggressive and will look to end the fight with an elbow while defending Bunes's submissions.
Bet: Edgar Chairez to Win by Knockout (+200)