UFC Fight Night Nassourdine Imavov vs. Sean Strickland: Odds, Picks & Predictions (Saturday)
The first UFC card of 2023 has officially arrived, as UFC Vegas 67 is set to go off Saturday afternoon live from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, NV. At the top of the card, a main event between surging French middleweight Nassourdine Imavov and UFC veteran Kelvin Gastelum has been altered, as Gastelum was forced to withdraw this week with a mouth injury.
In steps another UFC veteran in Sean Strickland, taking this short notice bout just 28 days from his last fight, also a UFC Fight Night main event here at the Apex.
While this UFC Fight Night offers a ton of value from top to bottom, let’s take a closer look at the main event of the evening.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
UFC Fight Night Nassourdine Imavov vs. Sean Strickland: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
Betting Profile: Nassourdine Imavov (12-3-0)
Last Five Fights (W-W-W-L-W)
Joining the UFC in October 2020, Imavov has quietly racked up a record of 4-1 with the promotion, earning himself a No. 12 ranking in what has become a crowded middleweight division. Taking a step up with each fight, his last result was his best to date, a three-round unanimous decision win vs. Joaquin Buckley.
Coming into this fight, the edges he held on paper vs. Gastelum are now mostly gone, with significant striking accuracy (54%) being the only noticeable edge he has.
Betting Profile: Sean Strickland (25-5-0)
Last Five Fights (L-L-W-W-W)
Leave it to “Tarzan†to do something as wild as this.
The craziest part is, it’s not even his quickest turnaround, having fought on 14 days rest in 2020, winning both of those fights. The story is different this time, as he draws one of the more underrated commodities in the UFC in Imavo, who has had the benefit of a full camp, albeit training for someone else.
Even still, Strickland has edges across the board in terms of metrics and a massive advantage in fighting history. With wins over Uriah Hall and Jack Hermansson, Strickland has also shared the octagon with Kamaru Usman, Alex Pereira and most recently, Jared Cannonier.
Bottom Line
All things being equal, Strickland is likely an even bigger favorite in this matchup, as indicated by the market adjusting him from +160 to -120 as of Tuesday morning. Things are not equal, however.
Not only does Imavov have the advantage of a full camp, but Strickland was just in a five-round car crash with Cannonier, absorbing the most shots Cannonier has ever dished out in a fight.
In typical Strickland fashion, I expect a tactical showcase and for this one to go to the judge’s before all is said and done.
Best Bet: Nassourdine Imavov by Decision (+115)
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