UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Long Shot Bets (2022)
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song is set to get underway this Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. While this card features mostly up-and-comers, the headline bout between Cory Sandhagen and Song Yadong should be electric.
Below, I will walk through my two best longshot prop bets to make for this card. These plays are one unit each, or 1% of your betting bankroll.
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Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Nikolas Motta vs. Cameron VanCamp
To kick off the night, we have a lightweight bout between Nikolas Motta and Cameron VanCamp. This scrap will be VanCamp’s second in the UFC and first as a lightweight.
Dropping his debut appearance against Andre Fialho in the welterweight division, VanCamp has decided to drop down a division. This drop-down could be exactly what he needs to get back on track, as he will likely have a big power advantage over some of his lightweight opponents.
While he is known for his grappling, VanCamp has proven to be able to knock guys out as well, with three of his 15 professional wins coming via knockout. Fighting in a lower weight class, this power could present itself against Motta.
Boasting a four-inch reach advantage, he should be able to outstrike Motta in a fight that should stay standing. Neither guy has landed a takedown in the UFC, while Motta boasts a 100% takedown defense.
If this fight stays standing, Motta’s chin could get exposed like It did against veteran Jim Miller back in February. On the feet, VanCamp boasts more strikes landed per minute (SLpM) and higher striking accuracy (61% versus 30%).
At 9/1, he is absolutely worth a shot to end this fight early.
Pick: Cameron VanCamp to Win via KO/TKO/DQ (+900)
Anthony Hernandez vs. Marc-Andre Barriault
To kick off the main card, we have a middleweight bout between Anthony Hernandez and Marc-Andre Barriault. Like VanCamp, we are getting tremendous value in Hernandez’s knockout prop because he is known as a grappler.
However, this is a scrap that we could see him end early. Opening as a -170 betting favorite, he has since been bet up to -175. The #23 ranked worldwide middleweight, he possesses a big advantage over Barriault’s #44 ranking.
Boasting a two-inch reach advantage, Hernandez has the power capable of finishing Barriault. While he has mostly relied on his grappling under the UFC umbrella, Hernandez has finished a couple of people when he was in the West Coast FC promotion.
Meanwhile, Barriault just got knocked out two fights ago when facing Chidi Njokuani. While Hernandez may shoot frequently, Barriault’s 68% takedown accuracy could keep this fight standing.
A more accurate striker, Hernandez possesses a 58% striking accuracy while landing 4.26 strikes per minute. At 5/1, I think Hernandez via knockout is worth a shot.
Pick: Anthony Hernandez to Win via KO/TKO/DQ (+500)
Best of luck!
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