UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Long Shot Bets (10/1)
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan is set to get underway this Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. While this card is certainly not the most exciting on paper, there are still a couple of great betting angles to attack.
Below, I will walk through my two best longshot prop bets to make for this card. These plays are one unit each, or 1% of your betting bankroll.
Follow me on Twitter to get all of my plays on days without full write-ups.
Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Long Shot Bets (10/1)
Julija Stoliarenko vs. Chelsea Chandler
Early on during the preliminary card, we have a women’s catchweight bout between Stoliarenko and Chandler. More than anything else, this play is a fade of Stoliarenko.
Since entering the UFC, she has struggled mightily as Stoliarenko lost each of her first four fights before finally winning her last one against Jessica-Rose Clark. In that scrap, Stoliarenko broke her arm with an armbar just a minute into the fight.
While the takedown and submission were impressive, the win did not move the needle for me at all in terms of her talent. It was a nice takedown and finish, but we could not gauge if her game has actually improved or if she just caught an off-guard opponent early.
With the fight being fought at 140, Chandler benefits much more as she is normally 10 pounds heavier, one inch taller, and two inches longer than Stoliarenko. With the size advantage, Chandler should want this fight to stay on its feet.
Stoliarenko did win her only UFC bout via submission, but she normally also stays standing. Through her five career fights, she averages just 0.50 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Despite coming off that win, I am still not sold on Stoliarenko. Meanwhile, Chandler is making her UFC debut after winning four straight in the Invicta FC promotion.
One of those wins came via KO/TKO, and with the size advantage she will possess against Stoliarenko, I would not be surprised if Chandler starts her UFC journey off with a bang.
Pick: Chelsea Chandler to Win via KO/TKO/DQ (+450)
John Castaneda vs. Daniel Santos
On the main card, Castaneda is set to take on Santos. This fight should stay on its feet as neither guy shoots for takedowns often.
If this scrap stays standing, then Castaneda should have the advantage. While Santos has only one UFC bout in his resume, he struggled mightily.
In that fight, he lost via Unanimous Decision to Julio Arce. Getting absolutely dominated in that scrap, Santos only landed 49 of his 229 significant strikes (21%).
Meanwhile, Castaneda has won three of his four UFC fights since appearing on Dana White’s Contender Series. He has shown his knockout power previously in his KO/TKO victory over Eddie Wineland, something I expect to see once again on Saturday.
Going against Santos, Castaneda boasts a four-inch reach advantage, higher striking accuracy, striking defense, and more strikes landed per minute. With that in mind, Castaneda to win via KO/TKO at 4/1 is worth a shot.
Pick: John Castaneda to Win via KO/TKO/DQ (+400)
Best of luck!
Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategies — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.