UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Longshot Bets (2022)
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland will get underway this Saturday at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. For a non-numbered event, this card is stacked with plenty of high-profile fights and title contenders.
Below, I will walk through my two best longshot prop bets to make for this event. These plays are one unit each, or 1% of your betting bankroll.
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(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Rafa Garcia vs. Maheshate
In the preliminary card, we have a lightweight bout between Rafa Garcia and Maheshate. This fight will feature a clash in styles as Garcia will want to bring this scrap to the mat while Maheshate prefers to stand-and-bang.
Since joining the UFC, Garcia is just 2-3. However, his strong grappling has been on display as he has averaged 3.87 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Garcia’s relentless takedown efforts led to his most recent victory against Jesse Ronson, whom Garcia submitted via rear-naked choke in the closing seconds of the second round. Maheshate has yet to face a grappler since joining the UFC, so It will be interesting to see how he fares.
This fight will be a pretty sizable step up for Maheshate, who has yet to be tested in the UFC. If he does not have an answer for Garcia’s grappling, then a submission is certainly not out of the question, making +425 a worthy price to grab.
Pick: Rafa Garcia via Submission (+425)
Cody Brundage vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
As many know, the UFC does not mess around when it comes to scheduling the first fight of the main card as they almost always try to schedule a fight that will end inside the distance. The UFC has certainly done just that by putting Michal Oleksiejczuk in this spot.
Oleksiejczuk is a knockout machine that has seen six of his last eight fights end prior to the final bell. Of his five wins over that stretch, four were via first-round knockout.
While we should look for him to win via knockout once again, there is more value in picking him to do so in the second round. The reasoning behind this is that Cody Brundage is stepping into this fight on less than two weeks’ notice after Albert Duraev withdrew from the bout.
Since neither camp has prepped for this fight until these last eight days, the first round could see more of a feeling-out process. If that is the case, then Brundage could survive until round two.
Oleksiejczuk’s power is scary in the middleweight division because he is really a 205er who is making just his second career appearance in the 185-pound division. Despite the weight cut, his power carried down with him in his middleweight debut against Sam Alvey as Oleksiejczuk won via knockout within the first two minutes.
While Brundage carries some power as well, he is capable of being knocked out as evidenced by his DWCS loss to William Knight. Oleksiejczuk is going to be the bigger man in the octagon with a two-inch reach advantage and a more relentless striking attack, which makes his knockout prop stand out.
If the fight does indeed start with a feeling-out process, then taking a flyer on Oleksiejczuk to knockout Brundage in round two is worth a shot.
Pick: Michal Oleksiejczuk via KO/TKO/DQ in Rd 2 (+500)
Best of luck!
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.