UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Longshot Bets (2022)
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland will get underway this Saturday at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida. For a non-numbered event, this card is stacked with plenty of high-profile fights and title contenders.
Below, I will walk through my two best longshot prop bets to make for this event. These plays are one unit each, or 1% of your betting bankroll.
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(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Amanda Ribas vs. Tracy Cortez
We have a flyweight bout in the preliminary card between the #15 contender Amanda Ribas and #13 contender Tracy Cortez. Despite Cortez’s undefeated (5-0) record in the UFC and higher ranking, she finds herself as a slight underdog in this scrap.
While she is 5-0, Cortez has no marquee fights, as none of those wins came against ranked opponents. A well-rounded mixed martial artist, Cortez is comfortable fighting both standing and on the mat.
However, her one professional loss came in the grappling department as she lost to Cheri Muraski via guillotine choke in Cortez’s first fight under the Invicta FC promotion. In this scrap, Cortez is going against Amanda Ribas, who is coming directly off a split-decision loss to Katlyn Chookagian.
It was an impressive performance from Ribas, showing off her grappling with three takedowns and almost five minutes of control time against the #3 contender in the division. Before her fight against Chookagian, Ribas started off her UFC career with a 5-1 record, including two submission victories and a win over the strawweight division’s #7 contender Mackenzie Dern.
Ribas is getting generous line because of the fact that she has lost two of her last three fights, but those two losses were against legit title contenders. At the same time, Cortez is undefeated but has not beaten anyone of significance. Give me the better grappler to grab her third submission victory in the UFC.
Pick: Amanda Ribas via Submission (+550)
Stephen Thompson vs. Kevin Holland
We have a welterweight scrap between the #6 contender Stephen Thompson and Kevin Holland in the main event. Holland’s unranked status is not an indictment of his fighting level; rather, it is because he just moved down to the 170-pound division this year after previously fighting at 185.
Now is the time to buy low on Thompson, who is coming off two straight losses to Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns. Those are two of the best fighters that the welterweight division has to offer, with Muhammad currently ranked as the #4 contender while Burns is #5.
Thompson boasts an incredibly impressive resume, winning eight of his first nine fights in the UFC and producing two good championship fights against Tyron Woodley. While Thompson has never worn gold around his waist, he has proven that his striking can reach that level.
Producing wins over the likes of Geoff Neal, Vicente Luque, and Jorge Masvidal, Thompson is never afraid of the moment. His knockout power has also been on full display, boasting five KO/TKO wins in his career.
While Holland has never been knocked out, he has never faced a striker like Thompson. When Holland was in the 185 weight class, he fought big names like Kyle Daukaus, Marvin Vettori, and Derek Brunson, but all three of those guys relied heavily on grappling instead of striking.
Holland’s two wins in the 170 division are against Tim Means and Alex Oliveira, two unranked guys. This fight is a big step up for Holland relative to his experience at welterweight, and it is not out of the question that Thompson’s striking overwhelms him in the later rounds.
Pick: Stephen Thompson via KO/TKO (+330)
Best of luck!
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.