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UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Longshot Bets (2023)

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UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen gets underway this Saturday at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas. While this card is certainly one of the weaker ones in recent memory, there are still a couple of great betting angles to attack.

Below, I will walk through my two best longshot prop bets to make for this event. These plays are 0.5 units each, or 0.5% of your betting bankroll.

Follow me on Twitter to get all my plays on days without full write-ups.

UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen Best Longshot Bets

Odds via BetRivers Sportsbook

Trevin Giles vs. Preston Parsons

On the preliminary card, there is a welterweight bout between Trevin Giles and Preston Parsons. Giving up an inch in height and three-inches in reach, Parsons will surely look to use his strong grappling skills against the bigger Giles.

Since joining the UFC, Parsons’ grappling has been on full display, landing 3.19 takedowns per 15 minutes at 40% accuracy. A submission specialist, Parsons was relentless in his latest win over Evan Elder.

In that scrap, Parsons landed four of six takedowns and attempted a whopping five submissions. Although Elder was able to survive until the final bell, Giles may not be as fortunate.

Entering this bout, Giles has lost four of his last eight fights with two of those four losses coming via submission. Meanwhile, Parsons has won 10 of his first 13 pro fights with nine of those 10 wins coming via submission.

Besides getting caught by Daniel Rodriguez, which can happen to anyone due to his power, Parsons has looked like a great prospect in this sport and should continue the strong start to his career against Giles.

Pick: Preston Parsons via Submission (+260)

Manuel Torres vs. Trey Ogden

In the second fight of this card, Mexico’s Manuel Torres takes on Trey Ogden in this lightweight bout. A Dana White Contender Series veteran, Torres burst onto the scene rapidly with two straight first round knockout victories.

Nicknamed “El Loco” for good reason, it is all-systems-go as soon as Torres steps into the octagon. Once the bell rings, he blitzes immediately and tries to get his opponent out of there as early as possible.

Not only are 12 of his 13 professional wins via finishes, but a whopping nine of those came in the first round. Even each of his two professional losses occurred in the first round, which is an indicator of how fast and furious Torres’ fights are.

A true mixed martial arts practitioner, Torres can beat you both on foot and on the mat. His 12 finishes are split right down the middle, with six knockouts and six submissions.

However, in this fight, we are targeting his grappling to get Ogden out of the octagon quickly. Ogden also typically fights on the mat, which should further lead to someone winning via submission in this bout.

The Bellator and LFA veteran has had 14 of his 21 professional fights end inside the distance, with all 14 of those wins and losses coming via submission. Giving up the neck is a big weakness for Ogden, who has lost via Rear Naked Choke or Guillotine in three of his last four losses.

Assuming nothing changes with Torres’ early-fight blitzing, he could overwhelm Ogden with his power early on and then find the neck if he is able to knock him down. Either way, look for Torres to come in with guns blazing once again and make it an early night for Ogden.

Pick: Manuel Torres Submission & Round 1 (+650)

Best of luck!

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.