UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Derrick Lewis vs. Sergey Spivak (2022)
After an electric night of fights at Madison Square Garden in New York City, the UFC heads home this week for a night of fights at the UFC Apex before taking next week off with Thanksgiving. Streamed in its entirety on ESPN+, this free card has some bangers on it worth tuning in for, as we’re once again dialed in with a full slate of free UFC predictions.
In this one, let’s take a closer look at the main event of the evening between two heavyweights in desperate search of a victory.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Derrick Lewis (26-10-0)
Last Five Fights (L-L-W-L-W)
In what was his second chance at a heavyweight UFC belt, “The Black Beast†lost to Ciryl Gane in August of 2021 to start a slide in which he’s now lost three of his past four fights. Coming into this fight on a two-fight slide, Lewis did get defeated by two top 10 guys in Tai Tuivasa followed by Sergei Pavlovich in July.
From a metrics standpoint, which I put less value on in this weight class, Lewis does have the edge in knockdowns per 15 minutes, as well as absorbing .5 fewer strikes per minute. That’s about as far as his metric advantages go, however.
Betting Profile: Sergey Spivac (14-3-0)
Last Five Fights (W-W-L-W-W)
The Polar Bear comes into this fight having won six of his nine fights since joining the UFC, finishing his last two opponents inside two rounds. The last time we saw him in the octagon was his most impressive result to date, a second-round stoppage of Augusto Sakai in August.
Though he won’t like won’t use it, which he’d be wise to, Spivac’s ground game dominates this matchup with 4x the submission average and nearly 8x the takedown average per 15 minutes inside the octagon. In all six of Spivac’s professional fights that have gone by way of submission, Spivac has come out as the victor.
Bottom Line
Though I’ve long stayed away from betting against Lewis, with 24 UFC fights under his belt, father time is always one knock away. Clearly here for the money, as stated by his own self throughout his career, Lewis’ days in hunting for titles are likely over as a new crop of young fighters comes into the fray.
I think we see that highlighted here by Spivac, who at 10 years younger, is very much on the hunt for a title shot of his own.
Best Bet: Sergey Spivac – Inside the Distance (-150 via DraftKings)
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