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UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Grant Dawson vs. Mark Madsen (11/5)

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Let’s take a look at one of my top picks for tonight’s UFC Fight Night: Grant Dawson vs. Mark Madsen.

UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Grant Dawson vs. Mark Madsen

The first fight of the main card will take place in the lightweight division between Grant Dawson and Mark Madsen. Madsen is a peculiar fighter because he is 38 years old but is undefeated. He is a former Olympian and won the silver medal in Greco-Roman 75 kg at the 2016 games. Madsen has 12 victories, two coming before 2016, and the others took place in 2018 and later. He is entering a fight as an underdog for the first time in his career. There is also a nine-year age difference. In such scenarios, the younger fighter beats the older 70% of the time.

Grant Dawson is more experienced at the age of 28. He has 18 victories, one loss, and one draw on his record, with the loss coming outside the UFC in 2016. Since joining the UFC, Dawson has shown off his slick jiu-jitsu. He submitted Minner, mentioned above, and two other opponents. It is unknown how Dawson’s wrestling will stack up against the former Olympian, but it is worth noting Madsen did not land his only takedown attempt against Clay Guida, who is a capable wrestler in his own right. Dawson’s jiu-jitsu is good enough to end this fight inside the distance if Madsen gives him an opportunity. If it becomes a striking match, Dawson lands 3.17 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.56. Madsen lands 3.77 and absorbs 3.92 strikes per minute. Dawson has more paths to victory if he does not accept being on his back with Madsen controlling him.

Grant Dawson moneyline (-210)

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