UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Ion Cutelaba vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu (2022)
The UFC returns home this week for a night of bouts at the UFC Apex before taking next week off for Thanksgiving. This follows an incredible night of fights at Madison Square Garden in New York City last week that saw every fight on the main card end inside of the distance. This free event, which is being streamed in its entirety on ESPN+, offers a few fights worth tuning in for, and we’re once again dialed in with a full slate of free UFC predictions.
In this one, let’s take a deeper look at the evening’s co-main event, which features a pair of light heavyweights in desperate search of a much-needed win.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Ion Cutelaba (16-7-1)
Last Five Fights (L-L-W-D-L)
Joining the UFC in June of 2016, Ion Cutelaba has produced a mixed bag of results in the promotion, going 5-7-1, having now won just one of his past six fights. His current losing run started via the hands of Magomed Ankalaev, losing via KO/TKO in the very first round twice in 2020. A subsequent draw (Dustin Jacoby) and win (Devin Clark) have since been followed by two straight first-round submission losses.
From a metrics standpoint, Cutelaba has the edge here in terms of str grappling, with a 5x submission average per 15 minutes coming in at 4.68. Albeit narrowly, he does however lose the battle when it comes to takedown defense.
Betting Profile: Kennedy Nzechukwu (10-3-0)
Last Five Fights (W-L-L-W-W)
For the “African Savageâ€, a July 2022 win via KO/TKO was much needed as he picked up his first win in three fights via third-round KO/TKO over Karl Roberson. Joining the UFC via DWCS in March 2019, Nzechukwu has amassed a record of 4-2 and needs a win here to like draw the eye of a potential top-10 matchup next year.
Following the metrics, Nzechukwu has edges in striking across the board including knockdown average, significant striking volume, as well as significant striking accuracy. While he trails in the takedown department, he does hold the slight edge in submissions as well at .16 per 15 minutes in the octagon.
Bottom Line
While both of these guys do have wrestling in their repertoire, they are both known to me as strikers and I think we see this one remain upright. For Cutelaba, a loss here very much puts his UFC livelihood in doubt, and I think we see him take a conservative approach that avoids getting caught early.
Despite the juice on this one ending early, I think we see it make it into the second round.
Best Bet: Over 1.5 Rounds (-125 via DraftKings)
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