UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Cory Sandhagen vs. Song Yadong (9/17)
A pair of top 10 bantamweights will face off in Saturday’s main event as the promotion returns to the UFC Apex for one of the most jam-packed cards of the year. With Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS) alumn sprinkled throughout the card, the two at the top are veterans of the company with a combined 54 professional fights under their belt.
While there’s plenty of value in this UFC Fight Night card from top to bottom, here’s where I think the main event is headed.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Cory Sandhagen (14-4-0)
Last Five Fights (L-L-W-W-L)
Joining the UFC back in 2018, Sandhagen has been busy in the time since, racking up a record of 7-3 in the time since and culminating with a title shot in October vs. Petr Yan. While he lost that via unanimous decision, Sandhagen hung tough with the (now) #1 contender in the division and former champion.
In fact, all three of Sandhagen’s losses in the UFC have come against former bantamweight champions Aljamain Sterling (submission) and TJ Dillashaw (split decision). Coming into this fight, Sandhagen holds the edge in striking, landing nearly two more significant strikes per minute than his opponent.
Betting Profile: Song Yadong (19-6-1)
Last Five Fights (W-W-W-L-W)
Yadong joined the UFC just a year earlier, in 2017, and has racked up a nearly equally impressive resume in the time since. 8-1-1 in with the UFC, Yadong comes into this fight having won his past three straight, with his last loss coming to Kyler Phillips (unanimous decision) in March 2021.
As for edges here, Yadont does hold the edge in takedown accuracy with a clip of 42% (vs. 33%), as well as striking defense, absorbing nearly one less significant strike per minute.
Bottom Line
The market has largely agreed with oddsmakers here, as the top UFC predictions that have come in have been in favor of Sandhagen, seeing his odds move slightly from their -160 opening.
With 10 fights with the UFC each, that cat is mostly out of the bag with who each of these fighters is, giving me an extra sense of confidence in believing the metrics. Further, while Yadong’s fight history has been impressive, Sandhagen has only fallen to the best in the world, and I think is still undervalued at these longs on Saturday.
With one more run at a title in sight with a few more wins, I like for Sandhagen to get this one done.
Best Bet: Corey Sandhagen (-180 via DraftKings)
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