UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tim Means vs. Max Griffin (2022)
The UFC comes home to Las Vegas, Nevada, for another night of bouts at the UFC Apex after spending a week in Abu Dhabi for UFC 280. There will be 11 fights in total on the night, starting with the preliminary bouts at 4 p.m. EST. The main event will feature top featherweights Calvin Kattar and Arnold Allen, capping off a full card for which I have put together free UFC picks.
Today, however, we look closely at the co-main between Tim Means and Max Griffin. Before the opening bell at the Apex, let’s take a deeper look at both fighters and see where the value still lies.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Tim Means (32-13-1)
Last Five Fights (L-W-W-W-L)
Means joined the UFC in February 2012, but his experience with the organization has been rocky up to this point. He has fought some of the finest competitors in the division, however, including Belal Muhammed, Neil Magny, and Jorge Masvidal. Each resulting in a decision loss, Means has been formidable but never able to turn the corner.
Means does have the advantage going into this fight in terms of significant strikes landed per minute and taking fewer shots in the stand-up game. He does, however, trail on the ground, a flaw in his game that a skilled opposition might exploit.
Betting Profile: Max Griffin (18-9-0)
Last Five Fights (L-W-W-W-L)
Griffin debuted in the UFC in August 2016 and lost (by KO) to Colby Covington, which launched a journey that has since yielded inconsistent outcomes. Griffin had won three straight before his most recent split decision loss to Neil Magny in March and comes into this one 6-7 in the UFC.
However, Griffin has the advantage in every contest area here. Even though he falls short in terms of striking volume, as was already indicated, he excels in terms of knockdown average per 15 minutes and striking accuracy. He also dominates his opponent in grappling, having the advantage in the average number of takedowns and submissions per 15 minutes and takedown defense.
Bottom Line
Griffin, who started as a -150 favorite, has now climbed upward and so far received strong support from the market. Movement I agree with.
Means’ vulnerability has been on the ground, where he has lost both of his losses in the last five fights. Now Griffin enters the picture, bringing advantages in all areas of grappling, including submission rates, takedown rates, takedown accuracy, and takedown defense.
Griffin also benefits from recent history; he has won three of his last four fights, and his most recent loss—a split decision against Magny—was at best dubious. Griffin is more likely to succeed in this one because there are more possible paths to victory, and I think we see this one creep closer to -200 as fight night approaches.
Best Bet: Max Griffin (-170 via DraftKings)
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