UFC Fight Night Paris Odds, Picks & Predictions (9/3)
Let’s check out our top odds, picks, and predictions for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night Paris event.
UFC Fight Night Paris Odds, Picks & Predictions
Ciryl Gane vs. Tai Tuivasa
While I never feel totally comfortable taking a fight between two heavyweights to end late, I do think we see this one play out into the later rounds. For Gane, his average rounds per fight are 3.27, a particularly interesting stat given he’s been in just two title fights.
Against a striker like Tuivasa, I think we see Gane take this fight to his own terms, which points to a slow start and, more importantly, over 2.5 rounds.
Best Bet: Over 2.5 Rounds (-125 via DraftKings)
Robert Whittaker vs. Marvin Vettori
Going back to 2016, both of these fighters have just two losses each, both of which have come against middleweight champ Adesanya. While it certainly makes sense why Whittaker is the favorite here, given his history of taking care of strong opponents as of late in Kelvin Gastelum and Jared Cannonier, I’m not so sure the odds fit the matchup here.
With his only two losses in his last 10 fights coming vs. Adesanya, Vettori has taken out the likes of Kevin Holland and Paulo Costa, two killers in their own rights and legit title contenders. If he can get this fight to the ground, he has a clear path to victory, making this fight more of a coin flip than the odds currently imply.
Best Bet: Marvin Vettori (+195 via DraftKings)
Charles Jourdain vs. Nathaniel Wood
This lightweight bout between two relative unknowns could be one of the sneaky good fights on this card between two fighters who love to stand and strike; when their opponent obliges. With both fighters having 7+ fights inside the UFC, the cat is largely out of the bag in terms of who these fighters are, with their metrics largely solidified.
With that, I think Wood’s 3x edge in significant strikes landed volume is one worth putting stock into, as are his edges on the ground. I think the wrong guy is favored here.
Best Bet: Nathaniel Wood (+130 at DK Sportsbook)
Nassourdine Imavov vs. Joaquin Buckley
This middleweight clash between two guys with one-punch power has the potential for fireworks, as both have shown a desire to stand and swing in the past. For Buckley, eight of his last nine fights have gone by way of KO/TKO, all within 2.5 rounds.
Imavov, on the other hand, has finished giving seven inside of the distance, all inside of two rounds. While Imavov is the more highly touted fighter currently ranked #12 in the division, I have this one much closer to even on paper than the odds suggest.
With the power and more in more in-depth experience favoring Buckley, I like his chances in this fight and can see a path for him to get the job done before this one is all said and done.
Best Bet: Joaquin Buckley (+215 at DK Sportsbook)
Alessio Di Chirico vs. Roman Kopylov
In this main card scrap, we have a middleweight bout between Alessio Di Chirico and Roman Kopylov. These two fighters desperately need a win after some disappointing performances recently.
Di Chirico has now lost four of his last five fights, capped off with a loss via head kick just 17 seconds into the bout against Abdul Razak Alhassan. Meanwhile, Kopylov is now 0-2 in the UFC since starting an 8-0 professional career under a few different promotions.
While we have yet to see it in the UFC, Kopylov’s power must be respected, with seven of his eight professional wins coming via KO/TKO. Kopylov also did score a knockdown against Duraev in his latest scrap.
This fight should stay on the feet, which instantly gives Kopylov the advantage as he is a more accurate striker with much more proven power. Even if Di Chirico tries to bring the fight to the mat, Kopylov’s 83% takedown defense should be enough to keep It standing.
Assuming the fight turns into a striking competition, there is too much power in Kopylov’s striking not to take a flyer on him to win via KO/TKO.
Bset Bet: Roman Kopylov to Win via KO/TKO/DQ (+390)
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Johnny is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Johnny, check out his free UFC picks newsletter and follow him @JohnnyCovers.