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UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes Best Bets, Picks & Predictions

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MMA is 0ne of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success. We are going to look at numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets but it will in turn make us more knowledgeable about a sport that is extremely volatile. Let’s look at the statistics that will help us make our best bets.

Glossary

Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance

Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute

Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)

Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of Distance Strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)

Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average. Higher defense equals better defense)

KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)

Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground

Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)

Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)

The main key to this analysis is we are going to look at each fighter’s last three fights. This is more indicative of a fighter’s form and general ability than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let’s dive into some of our best bets for this upcoming UFC card.

UFC Fight Night Best Bets

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Brad Tavares (-155) vs Bruno Silva (+135)


Brad Tavares

  • Dist Acc Off: 52%
  • Dist Att/Min: 11.35
  • Dist Def: 62%
  • KD%: .005% (1 KD out of 197 Dist Strikes Landed)
  • Control % Off: 5%
  • Control % Def: 21%

Bruno Silva

  • Dist Acc Off: 38%
  • Dist Att/Min: 10.86
  • Dist Def: 49%
  • KD %: 1.1 % (1 KD out of 87 Dist Strikes Landed)
  • Control % Off: 5%
  • Control % Def: 20%

This fight should play out on the feet and at distance. Neither fighter has a high Control % on offense. With that being said, Tavares stands out from an accuracy and defensive standpoint. Silva’s distance defense is an abysmal 49%. They both fight at a similar pace and neither has had incredible power over the last three fights. This makes Brad Tavares at -155 a solid play, Tavares winning a decision is also +175.

Bobby Green (-250) vs Jared Gordon (+210)


Bobby Green

  • Dist Acc Off: 52%
  • Dist Att/Min: 21.21
  • Dist Def: 74%
  • KD %: .003% (1 KD out of 276 Distance strikes landed)
  • Control % Off: 1.7%
  • Control % Def: .004%

Jared Gordon

  • Dist Acc Off: 60%
  • Dist Att/Min: 13.69
  • Dist Def: 61%
  • KD %: 0% (0 KDs out of 198 Distance strikes landed)
  • Control % Off: 26%
  • Control % Def: 19%

A couple of the things stand out from these two: If you want to control Bobby Green, you need to be an elite-level wrestler (Islam Makhachev) otherwise good luck because you are going to need it. Secondly, Green boasts an incredible defense at distance. With that being said Jared Gordon is no slouch either, his numbers at distance are above average. This arguably will be a harder fight for Gordon than when he fought Paddy Pimblett. Green’s ability to be more active and get hit less is going to prove troublesome for Gordon. Gordon not having extreme power (Drew Dober) or elite wrestling skills (Islam Makhachev) is going to have to fight Green at distance and that will not go well for him. Bobby Green -250 can be thrown in any parlay with confidence, I also like Green to win by KO at +350. His volume and accuracy will overwhelm Gordon and could lead to an early stoppage.

Jeremiah Wells (-110) vs Matthew Semelsberger (-110)


Jeremiah Wells

  • Dist Strike Acc: 32.6 %
  • Dist Strike Att/Min: 15.75
  • Dist Def: 41%
  • KD%: 11.7% (2 KDs out of 17 Distance strikes landed)
  • Control % Off: 68.2 %
  • Control % Def: 3%

Matthew Semelsberger

  • Dist Strike Acc: 31.4 %
  • Dist Strike Att/Min: 13.93
  • Dist Def: 52%
  • KD%: 3.7% (4 KDs out of 107 Distance strikes landed)
  • Control % Off: 26.2%
  • Control % Def: 17.3%

First things first. Jeremiah Wells has a total of 11 minutes and 42 seconds worth of fight time over his last three fights. This is an incredibly small sample size in comparison to Semelsberger’s 45 minutes of fight time. Neither of these fighters is particularly good defensively at distance, and neither is particularly accurate from an offensive standpoint. Both do possess power, Wells is obviously inflated with the small sample size but it is still something to note. The biggest indicator and/or path to success here is Wells’s ability to control opponents. A 68% control time, even over a small sample size, is impressive. Wells has more paths to victory, and in my opinion, at -110 has extreme value.

Ricky Glenn (-155) vs Christos Giagos (+135)


Ricky Glenn

  • Dist Strike Acc: 37%
  • Dist Strike Att/Min: 12.95
  • Dist Def: 54%
  • KD%: 2.7% (2 KDs out of 73 Distance strikes landed)
  • Control % Off: 16.6%
  • Control % Def: 34.6%

Christos Giagos

  • Dist Strike Acc: 44%
  • Dist Strike Att/Min: 8.60
  • Dist Def: 56%
  • KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 47 Distance strikes landed)
  • Control % Off: 46.4%
  • Control % Def: .007%

There is one glaring factor in this fight. Giagos has an elite control % offense (46.4%) and Glenn has an abysmal control % defense (34.6%). Glenn will more than likely have to outpace Giagos on the feet but with being average from an accuracy standpoint it will be tough to make a difference. With neither possessing elite qualities in the distance striking this gives us enough confidence to take Giagos at +135.

Sergei Pavlovich (+140) vs Curtis Blaydes (-165)


Sergei Pavlovich

  • Dist Strike Acc: 47.3%
  • Dist Strike Att/Min: 13.42
  • Dist Def: 54%
  • KD%: 11.1% (4 KDs out of 36 Distance strikes landed)
  • Control % Off: 6%
  • Control % Def: 0%

Curtis Blaydes

  • Dist Strike Acc: 39%
  • Dist Strike Att/Min: 9.30
  • Dist Def: 74%
  • KD %: 1.3% (1 KD out of 187 Distance strikes landed)
  • Control % Off: 25.9%
  • Control % Def: 0%

This is your classic Striker vs Wrestler matchup. Pavlovich has a total fight time of 5 minutes and 52 seconds in his last three fights. He has five first-round knockouts in a row. Pavlovich has never seen a second round in his UFC career. Blaydes on the other hand is essentially the only elite heavyweight wrestler outside of Jon Jones. Blaydes has an incredible resume to his name, but I genuinely think Pavlovich has the ability to challenge for the Heavyweight Championship. Pavlovich +140 and +175 to win by KO is the way to go.

The Bets

Moneyline Parlay

  • Leg 1: Brad Tavares (-155)
  • Leg 2: Bobby Green (-250)
  • Leg 3: Jeremiah Wells (-110)
  • Leg 4: Christos Giagos (+135)
  • Leg 5: Sergei Pavlovich (+140)

Parlay Odds: +2379.
You can obviously interchange any of these five fighters to your liking and find a payout that works for you.

Method of Victory Parlay

  • Leg 1: Bobby Green by KO (+350)
  • Leg 2: Brad Tavares by Decision (+175)
  • Leg 3: Sergei Pavlovich by KO (+175)

Parlay Odds: +3303
This is more of a lottery ticket parlay but is fun to play in a volatile sport like MMA.

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You can find me on Twitter @goldendomer622 if you have any questions about the process or comments in general. Tune into our next UFC Fight Night article. Good luck with your bets this weekend!!!!