UFC Fight Night Pavlovich vs. Blaydes: Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
The UFC is returning to the Apex in Las Vegas for a battle between two top-five heavyweight contenders. Sergei Pavlovich is stepping into the octagon to face Curtis Blaydes. There are also quite a few entertaining fights elsewhere on the card. Things always seem more interesting in the Apex in the smaller cage, which promotes more action. The prelims begin at 4 p.m. EDT on Saturday, April 22, and the main card starts at 7 p.m. EDT, all on ESPN+.
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2023 total: Down 10 units
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Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Leg 1: Montel Jackson Moneyline (-600)
There are a lot of advantages for Montel Jackson in his fight with Rani Yahya. Jackson is eight years younger than Yahya and will have an eight-inch reach advantage over him. Yahya has superior jiu-jitsu, but Jackson has much better wrestling. Jackson averages 3.54 takedowns landed per 15 minutes with 71% accuracy. Yahya’s takedown defense is 24% because he is a threat off his back and allows the takedown sometimes. Jackson will likely keep this fight standing, as he can dictate where this fight takes place because of his wrestling ability.
On the feet, Yahya is not on the same level as Jackson. Jackson lands 3.39 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 1.40 strikes. Yahya’s ratio of strikes landed to strikes absorbed is 1.58:1.76, with 38% striking accuracy. Jackson is not the best striker in the division, but he is better than Yahya and should be able to land heavy shots from the outside with his reach advantage. Jackson has the better skillset in this fight and the ability to dictate the action, which gives him a great chance of winning with a solid game plan.
Leg 2: Jeremiah Wells Moneyline (-110)
Opening the main card, Jeremiah Wells is fighting Matthew Semelsberger in the welterweight division. Both men are powerful and athletic. Wells is six years older but has one less professional fight than Semelsberger. Semelsberger will have a four-inch height advantage, but their reach is nearly identical. It will be an evenly matched fight, but the value lies with Wells slightly. Semelsberger has become less aggressive and more technical as he has gained experience, but he loads up on shots and leaves himself exposed. He lands 4.60 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.57 strikes per minute. His aggressive nature begets the possibility of him getting hit.
Wells is a wrestler with explosive stand-up and high-level submission skills. He lands 3.68 strikes per minute and absorbs 1.62 strikes per minute. Both men have speed, but Wells is the slightly faster puncher. It should help him counter Semelsberger when he leaves himself open trying to find the knockout punch. Semelsberger could look to wrestle in this fight, but Wells is a submission threat and could win in that fashion. Wells has more ways to win this fight and can secure the victory.
Leg 3: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Curtis Blaydes Under 2.5 Rounds (-350)
The main event of the night is scheduled for five rounds, but it likely will not make it that far. Sergei Pavlovich is a knockout artist who has not been in the second round in his six UFC fights and Curtis Blaydes is one of the most dominant wrestlers at heavyweight with vicious ground and pound. It is a matchup of styles that will clash early. Blaydes is an effective striker, but Pavlovich may be the hardest puncher in the UFC now that Francis Ngannou is a free agent. Pavlovich has an average fight time of two minutes and 15 seconds, while Blaydes averages just over nine and a half minutes of fight time.
Either Pavlovich is going to knock him out with a devastating punch, or Blaydes will earn respect on the feet before attempting a takedown, which he will likely land. Pavlovich lost to Alistair Overeem via ground and pound in his UFC debut and did not look great on his back. He has surely improved his ground game since then, but Blaydes is on another level and will be aggressive on the mat.
Parlay Odds: +186
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