UFC Fight Night Picks & Prediction: Best Longshot Bets (2022)
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos is set to get underway this Saturday at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, Nevada. Despite the non-numbered card, we have some great and entertaining matchups in store.
Below, I will walk through my two best longshot prop bets to make for this card. These plays are one unit each, or 1% of your betting bankroll.
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Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Longshot Bets (11/5)
Tamires Vidal vs. Ramona Pascual
To kick off this event, we have a catchweight bout (137 lb) between Tamires Vidal and Ramona Pascual. Making her UFC debut, Vidal will look to continue her five-fight professional win streak.
Two of those victories have come via submission, a trend that could continue in this fight. A Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist, Vidal’s game plan will likely be to win this fight on the mat, which increases the chances of a submission victory.
Meanwhile, Pascual has had a lot of difficulty since joining the UFC as she has lost each of her two fights in this promotion via unanimous decision. Prior to joining the UFC, Pascual has lost via submission (armbar).
The younger, more promising Vidal should have no issue winning this fight, and the submission prop at over 4/1 is worth taking a shot on.
Pick: Tamires Vidal to Win via Submission (+420)
Jake Hadley vs. Carlos Candelario
Immediately following the Vidal/Pascual scrap, we have another catchweight bout (128.5 lb) between Carlos Candelario and Jake Hadley. Both guys are coming off losses and are searching for a way back into the win column.
This fight will likely feature a good mixture of martial arts as both guys are capable of boxing and wrestling, but Hadley’s path to victory could be on the feet. Boasting a two-inch reach advantage, Hadley is a relatively heavy favorite with some history of knocking out opponents.
In his professional debut, Hadley knocked out Daryl Grant in under a minute with Golden Ticket Fight Promotions. Five fights later, he knocked out Shajidul Haque in the first round under the Cage Warriors promotion.
Meanwhile, Candelario has lost each of his last two fights in the UFC. Although he has never been knocked out in his professional career, Candelario striking defense is a concern as he has absorbed 4.04 strikes per minute with a striking defense of just 42%.
If he keeps allowing himself to get hit cleanly, then It is not inconceivable that Hadley knocks him out. At 15/2, It is certainly worth a shot.
Pick: Jake Hadley to Win via KO/TKO (+750)
Best of luck!
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.