UFC Fight Night Picks: Song vs. Figueiredo (Macao)
Following a scheduled off week, the UFC packs its bags and heads to Southeast Asia for a stacked Fight Night card. The headliner in Macao pits Song Yadong against Deiveson Figueiredo in a top-10 Bantamweight clash. Below, I'll break down that fight, as well as two others, from a sports betting perspective. Here are my favorite wagers and UFC Fight Night picks for Song vs. Figueiredo.
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UFC Fight Night Picks: Song vs. Figueiredo Bets (Macao)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Song Yadong (-600) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (+440)
The sports betting market isn't giving (#7) Deiveson Figueiredo much of a chance on Saturday, pricing him as a +440 underdog against (#5) Song Yadong. Chinese native Song Yadong is out to a -600 favorite to secure the victory in front of his home fans.
In my opinion, this line is out of control. When you get to the -600 range, you're in "lock territory," and I just don't think Song Yadong's so dominant that he'll run through Deiveson Figueiredo with ease. I may sprinkle a few bucks on "Figgy," but in terms of a best bet, I will be on the fight to go the distance at -110.
Partially, my respect for Figueiredo, a former world champion at Flyweight, is why I think we'll get a full 25 minutes. He has only been finished three times across his 25-6-1 professional career. Additionally, Song's kind of a one-trick pony in that he relies so heavily on his striking. A veteran like Figueiredo should be able to gameplan around this and avoid a knockout loss. Even though he's aging, he's still plenty quick enough to evade getting flatlined.
Pick: Fight to Go the Distance: Yes (-110)
Sergei Pavlovich (-625) vs. Tallison Teixeira (+455)
Like the main event, we have another large disparity in betting odds in this ranked Heavyweight tilt between (#3) Sergei Pavlovich and (#15) Tallison Teixeira. Pavlovich is priced at -625 to notch his third straight win, while Teixeira is sitting at +455 to build upon his recent victory over Tai Tuivasa back in January 2026.
To be frank, I wasn't very impressed with Tallison Teixeira's effort against Tai Tuivasa earlier this year. His inability to finish Tuivasa nearly cost him late in the fight, and it was crystal clear that the Brazilian has a cardio issue. With that being said, even though Teixeira was gassed, he still proved to have a durable chin late in the fight.
Between his reliable chin and the fact that he's a giant at 6' 7", making him hard to hit, I think we're going to see Teixeira survive the first round. Plus, if Sergei Pavlovich watched the tape of his last fight, then he should have no issues playing it slow and dragging Teixeira into the later rounds. It's also worth noting that Pavlovich has seen his last three fights go the distance. At pick 'em odds, I think this prop bet on the fight to start the second round is worth a play.
Pick: Fight to Start Round 2: Yes (-120)
Alex Perez (-142) vs. Sumudaerji (+120)
The main card opens up with an exciting Flyweight bout between (#11) Alex Perez and unranked Sumudaerji. This is the tightest-lined fight on the main card, with American Alex Perez coming in at -142 on the moneyline. His Chinese counterpart, Sumudaerji, is +120 to have his hand raised.
I'll be on Alex Perez to win this bout. For me, this is one of those fights where I simply look at the strength of opponent that each fighter has faced. Perez, while he's just 2-5 in his last seven bouts, has been squaring off against guys like Tatsuro Taira (L: KO), Alexandre Pantoja (L: SUB), and Deiveson Figueiredo (L: SUB). Sumudaerji's competition hasn't been nearly as tough as those world-class brawlers.
What could ultimately cause Sumudaerji to lose this fight is his lack of reliable takedown defense. He does boast a respectable 72% takedown defense rate, but the 30-year-old has been taken down at least once in five of his last six fights. Perez averages 2.21 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands his attempts at a 48% success rate. The difference maker in a potential 29-28 decision win could be Perez stealing a round thanks to ground control time and top position.
Pick: Alex Perez Moneyline (-142)