UFC Fight Night Picks: Whittaker vs. de Ridder (Abu Dhabi)
The UFC returns this weekend following a thrilling UFC 318 card that saw Max Holloway issue Dustin Poirier a loss heading into retirement. This weekend, the promotion packs its bags and heads abroad to Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates for an afternoon card that's loaded with fun fights. Below, I'll dive into three of the bouts, including the main event between Robert Whittaker (No. 5) and Reinier de Ridder (No. 12), from a sports betting perspective and let you know my top three UFC Fight Night bets.
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UFC Fight Night Picks & Bets: Whittaker vs. de Ridder
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Robert Whittaker (-162) vs. Reinier de Ridder (+136)
All roads lead to a main event showdown in the Middleweight Division between Robert Whittaker (No. 5) and Reinier de Ridder (No. 12). Whittaker enters the contest at 27-8-0, while his counterpart is 20-2-0 and a perfect 3-0 in the UFC.
The Dutch Knight already has a few notable victories under his belt in the UFC, as he's taken down Gerald Meerschaert (SUB - Arm Triangle), Kevin Holland (SUB - Rear Naked Choke) and Bo Nickal (KO/TKO - Knee). Will he slay another household name on Saturday afternoon in Abu Dhabi?
It's possible, but I believe it's more likely that Whittaker stonewalls the 34-year-old submission artist. Whittaker is about as battle-tested as they come, and he's discarded some of the division's best across the last 11 years en route to his current 15-4 run. I believe Whittaker, who boasts an 81% defense rate and black belts in three different disciplines, has the defensive capabilities to avoid an early exit against de Riddier and his 90% finish rate (13 submissions and five knockouts in 20 professional wins).
I'm willing to lay the juice with the Aussie, but I will note that this is nearing the top of my range. If we saw de Ridder start paying out +150 or more, I think there's a case to be made for him as an underdog. Nevertheless, at this price, I like Whittaker to bounce back from the Khamzat Chimaev loss (SUB - Rear Naked Choke) and take care of business.
Bet: Robert Whittaker Moneyline (-162)
Petr Yan (-375) vs. Marcus McGhee (+295)
Petr Yan (No. 3) is still very relevant in the Bantamweight Division, and he's proven so by rattling off back-to-back wins against Song Yadong (U-DEC) and Deiveson Figueiredo (U-DEC). The Russian-born brawler is a massive -375 Moneyline favorite against Marcus McGhee (No. 13), who's on a 6-0 professional run in his 10-1-0 MMA career.
As of this writing (Wednesday morning), we only have the Moneyline and 2.5-round total (over: -360/under: +260) lines listed at DraftKings Sportsbook. It's tough to say exactly what I'll be locking in since we don't have odds available. However, I will be looking to play Yan to Win by decision, and depending on the price, I may parlay it with Yan to go over his significant strikes total.
This is going to be a high-volume war between two excellent fighters. Yan's averaging 5.11 significant strikes per minute, while McGhee is dishing out 6.06 strikes per minute. Neither man has been finished by knockout in his professional career, and with each brawler boasting a takedown rate north of 80%, we should end up with a vertical fight -meaning plenty of strikes will be accumulated.
With Yan on a solid two-fight winning streak and possessing a top-tier resume in the UFC, I think he'll do enough to get his hand raised after 15 minutes. Give me Yan to win in a clash that should be bountiful with significant strikes.
Bet: Petr Yan to Win by Decision & Yan Significant Strikes Over Parlay (Odds TBD)
Bryce Mitchell (-130) vs. Said Nurmagomedov (+110)
I'll head to the preliminary card finale for my final bet of this Fight Night card, as Bryce Mitchell drops to Bantamweight to take on unranked Said Nurmagomedov. The American is 17-4-0 professionally, while Nurmagomedov, who's a slim +110 underdog, enters the contest at 18-4-0. This is the second-tightest fight on the card from an odds perspective, behind only the Asu Almabayev (-115) vs. Jose Ochoa (-105) fight.
Seeing Mitchell at 135 pounds should be interesting. In theory, being a naturally bigger fighter at a lower weight should give him an advantage. Mitchell's a tried-and-true wrestler, and he's going to lean on his grappling once again this weekend.
With that said, I'm not very confident he's going to ragdoll Nurmagomedov, who is an International Master of Sport in amateur MMA. He boasts a 62% takedown defense rate and has seen one-third of his 18 professional wins come via submission. If Nurmagomedov can keep this fight upright, he should have no issue handling Mitchell.
We've seen too many holes in Thug Nasty's game recently for me to back him in this spot. Abu Dhabi has also acted as a "home away from home" for Dagestani fighters over the last several years. All things considered, I'll take a +110 flier on Nurmagomedov.
Bet: Said Nurmagomedov Moneyline (+110)