Navigate

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs Almeida Best Bets, Picks & Predictions (2023)

by |

We are back at it with another Fight Night card that looks very promising. We have some up-and-coming prospects mixed with some grizzled veterans. Let’s review our last two articles and update our record. We were one fight away from having an amazing day in the Fight Night Sadong vs Simon card and we ended up missing the board last week at UFC 288. No need to worry though we have ample opportunity to get back into the positive.

Record:

  • ML 6-3-1 (+3.25 units)
  • Props 2-5-1 (-2.25 units)
  • Parlays 0-4 (-2 units)
  • Overall (-1 unit)

MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success. We are going to look at numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport. Let’s look at the statistics that will help us make our best bets.

Glossary

  • Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
  • Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
  • Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
  • Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of Distance Strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
  • Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average. Higher defense equals better defense)
  • KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
  • Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
  • Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
  • Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)

The main key to this analysis is we are going to look at each fighter’s last three fights. This is more indicative of a fighter’s form and general ability than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let’s dive into some of our best bets for this upcoming UFC card.

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs Almeida Best Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Ian Garry (-300) vs Daniel Rodriguez (+250)

Ian Garry

  • Dist Acc Off:  54.9%
  • Dist Att/Min: 14.71
  • Dist Def: 53%
  • KD%: .6% (2 KDs out of 299 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 5.1%
  • Control % Def: 13.2%

Daniel Rodriguez

  • Dist Acc Off: 53.8%
  • Dist Att/Min: 14.49
  • Dist Def: 58%
  • KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 264 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 4.6%
  • Control % Def: 17.7%

Ian Garry is the darling of the Welterweight division. The UFC is really wanting to push him as possibly the next Irish star, however, the matchup here leaves a lot to be desired. On paper, both Rodriguez and Garry are extremely evenly matched. They both will look to stand and trade at a distance. They fight at a similar pace with comparable accuracy and power. Rodriguez is 11 years older than Garry and has better defense. I feel as if the line should be much shorter than what it is. I’m taking Rodriguez at +250 off pure value and ability to fight his fight.

Court McGee (-225) vs Matt Brown (+190)

Court McGee

  • Dist Acc Off: 48.9%
  • Dist Att/Min: 14.13
  • Dist Def: 59%
  • KD%: 1.3% (1 KD out of 72 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 60.1%
  • Control % Def: 7.3%

Matt Brown

  • Dist Acc Off: 53.5%
  • Dist Att/Min: 7.78
  • Dist Def: 58%
  • KD%: 1.1% (1 KD out of 84 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 29.2%
  • Control % Def: 17.5%

There are two stats that fly off the page for this fight. McGee almost doubles Brown in Dist/Att min and McGee has a 60.1% control offense. Both fighters are proficient defensively and accurate enough offensively. McGee has two clear paths to victory, either offensive control or outpacing Brown. McGee -225 is an easy pick for me.

Ji Yeon Kim (-190) vs Mandy Bohm (+160)

Ji Yeon Kim

  • Dist Acc Off: 39%
  • Dist Att/Min: 23.16
  • Dist Def: 56%
  • KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 351 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 6.6%
  • Control % Def: 7.2%

Mandy Bohm

  • Dist Acc Off: 37.5%
  • Dist Att/Min: 10.31
  • Dist Def: 64%
  • KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 66 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 4.6%
  • Control % Def: 38.4%

Ji Yeon Kim has an incredible 23.16 Dist Att/Min. That is more than double Mandy Bohm’s Dist Att/Min. Bohm boasts an above-average defense at a distance but has an abysmal 38.4% control defense. Neither fighter has shown any significant power in their previous fights. Kim should control this fight with her pace and if the fight gets into a control position she should flourish against Bohm. Ji Yeon Kim -190 is the play, also Ji Yeon Kim to win a decision is -105.

Gabriel Green (-135) vs Bryan Battle (+115)

Gabriel Green

  • Dist Acc Off: 41.6%
  • Dist Att/Min: 17.17
  • Dist Def: 47%
  • KD%: 1.1% (2 KDs out of 177 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 15.8%
  • Control % Def: 20.7%

Bryan Battle

  • Dist Acc Off: 54.5%
  • Dist Att/Min: 17.30
  • Dist Def: 47%
  • KD%: .8% (1 KD out of 114 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 10.9%
  • Control % Def: 48.1%

This matchup could possibly be the fight of the night if it stays at distance, but both fighters have abysmal distance defense. Battle is significantly more accurate and that will make all the difference. Battle’s control % defense is pretty horrendous and is the only pause in this fight. Power and pace are similar and because of that, I will lean towards Battle’s accuracy. Battle at +115 is the play.

Jailton Almeida (-500) vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+400)

Jailton Almeida has spent a total of 56 seconds at a distance in his last four fights. He has been in an offensive control position for the other 19 minutes and 35 seconds. This simply comes down to Rozenstruik’s control % defense of 35.9%. I honestly do not see how this plays out any other way. Jailton Almeida by submission at -115 is the play.

The Bets

Moneyline Parlay

  • Leg 1: Brian Battle (+115)
  • Leg 2: Ji Yeon Kim (-190)
  • Leg 3: Court McGee (-225)

Parlay Odds: +374

You have three fighters with direct advantages over their opponents.

Props Parlay

  • Leg 1: Daniel Rodriguez Moneyline (+1177)
  • Leg 2: Ji Yeon Kim by Decision (-105)
  • Leg 3: Jailton Almeida by Submission (-115)

Parlay Odds: +1177
 These three fighters matchup up well with their opponents and have the opportunity to replicate previous results.

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

You can find me on Twitter @goldendomer622 if you have any questions about the process or comments in general. Tune into our next article. Good luck with your bets this weekend!!!!